Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not include the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overall Market: At the end of the year, some funds are cashing in on their gains, leading to certain uncertainties in the market. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the general strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - Bonds: In the short - term, the bond market is expected to remain volatile due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after the oversold situation [7]. - Commodities: Different commodities have different outlooks. For example, copper prices may face resistance despite potential short - term increases; aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and gradually rise; zinc prices may have short - term upward impulses but are expected to be weak in the medium - term; etc. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - Stock Index Futures - Market Information: Multiple non - ferrous futures prices rose at night; the US Q3 economic growth reached 4.3%, the fastest in two years; SMIC raised some production capacity prices by about 10%; Starlink's global active users exceeded 9 million [2]. - Strategy: Although there are uncertainties at the end of the year, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Tuesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.76%, 0.22%, 0.16%, and 0.06% respectively. The central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy: The short - term bond market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound opportunities [7]. - Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold rose 0.42% to 1012.58 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.14% to 16961.00 yuan/kilogram. The US Q3 GDP data exceeded expectations, suppressing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [8]. - Strategy: In the medium - term, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates and expand the balance sheet. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper - Market Information: LME copper closed up 1.21% to $12055/ton, and Shanghai copper closed at 94890 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, and domestic premiums widened [12]. - Strategy: Short - term prices may rise, but there is resistance. The operating range for Shanghai copper is 93500 - 96000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 11850 - 12200 dollars/ton [13]. - Aluminum - Market Information: LME aluminum was flat at $2941/ton, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 22160 yuan/ton. Domestic inventories increased, and the spot was at a discount [14]. - Strategy: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and gradually rise. The operating range for Shanghai aluminum is 22050 - 22300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 2910 - 2980 dollars/ton [15]. - Zinc - Market Information: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.10% to 23100 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell to $3086.5/ton. Inventories increased, and the basis changed [16]. - Strategy: Zinc prices may have short - term upward impulses but are expected to be weak in the medium - term [17]. - Lead - Market Information: Shanghai lead index rose 0.43% to 16990 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1977.5/ton. Inventories and basis changed [19]. - Strategy: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term within a wide range [19]. - Nickel - Market Information: Shanghai nickel rose 1.71% to 125150 yuan/ton. Spot premiums and costs changed [20]. - Strategy: Although there is still a large surplus pressure, the short - term bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for Shanghai nickel is 110000 - 125000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is 13000 - 15500 dollars/ton [20]. - Tin - Market Information: Shanghai tin rose 1.27% to 344750 yuan/ton. Supply and demand had different trends [21]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for domestic tin is 300000 - 350000 yuan/ton, and for overseas tin is 39000 - 43000 dollars/ton [23]. - Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC index rose 3.14%, and the LC2605 contract rose 5.23% [24]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see or buy options lightly. The operating range for the LC2605 contract is 114500 - 124500 yuan/ton [25]. - Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index rose 0.01% to 2583 yuan/ton. Inventories and basis changed [26]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for the AO2601 contract is 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton [27]. - Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel main contract rose 0.43% to 12905 yuan/ton. Spot prices and inventories changed [28][29]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [29]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The AD2602 contract fell 0.12% to 21265 yuan/ton. Inventories decreased [30]. - Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [31]. Black Building Materials - Steel - Market Information: Rebar rose 0.063% to 3128 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil rose 0.122% to 3281 yuan/ton. Inventories and positions changed [33]. - Strategy: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The impact of export licenses will be gradually digested, and winter - storage willingness is weak [34]. - Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron - ore main contract fell 0.38% to 778.50 yuan/ton. Spot prices and basis changed [35]. - Strategy: Iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [36]. - Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass fell 0.29% to 1028 yuan/ton, and soda ash rose 0.51% to 1175 yuan/ton. Inventories and positions changed [37][40]. - Strategy: Glass is expected to oscillate narrowly, and for soda ash, it is recommended to short at appropriate times [39][41]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon fell 0.31% to 5822 yuan/ton, and ferrosilicon rose 0.07% to 5648 yuan/ton. Spot prices and basis changed [42]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the leading role of the black - building materials sector and cost and supply factors [43][45]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon rose 2.15% to 8780 yuan/ton, and polysilicon rose 0.65% to 59225 yuan/ton. Inventories and basis changed [46][48]. - Strategy: Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon futures are unstable. Attention should be paid to risks [47][49]. Energy and Chemicals - Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices oscillated. There are different views on supply and demand [51][52]. - Strategy: It is recommended to operate short - term and hold hedging positions [54]. - Crude Oil - Market Information: INE crude oil rose 1.92% to 440.90 yuan/barrel. Inventories changed [55][56]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export - support willingness [57]. - Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot prices changed, and the main contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2156 yuan/ton [58]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see. Methanol is expected to consolidate at a low level [59]. - Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices changed, and the main contract rose 23 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton [60]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long at low prices. Urea is expected to build a bottom through oscillation [61]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: Spot and futures prices changed. Supply and demand indicators changed [62]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter of next year [63]. - PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 147 yuan to 4738 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and costs changed [64]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [65]. - Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract fell 112 yuan to 3623 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [66]. - Strategy: Attention should be paid to the risk of price rebounds due to unexpected maintenance [68]. - PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose 42 yuan to 5082 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [69]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips based on expectations [70]. - Para - Xylene - Market Information: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7302 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [71]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips [72][73]. - Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The main contract rose 56 yuan/ton to 6296 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [74]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [75]. - Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The main contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 6158 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [76]. - Strategy: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in the first quarter of next year [77]. Agricultural Products - Hogs - Market Information: Domestic hog prices mostly rose. Regional prices and supply - demand changed [79]. - Strategy: Near - term contracts are expected to oscillate. Consider short - selling on rallies, and pay attention to long - term support [80]. - Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply and demand and prices changed [81]. - Strategy: Near - term contracts are expected to squeeze the premium. Consider short - selling on rallies, and pay attention to long - term pressure [82]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Domestic meal prices and inventories changed [83]. - Strategy: Meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. - Oils and Fats - Market Information: Palm oil production and exports changed. Domestic oil prices rebounded [85]. - Strategy: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [86]. - Sugar - Market Information: Zhengzhou sugar futures rose. Domestic and international production and import data changed [87][88]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The overall outlook is bearish [90]. - Cotton - Market Information: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose. Domestic and international production, import, and inventory data changed [91][92]. - Strategy: It is unlikely for Zhengzhou cotton to have a unilateral trend [93].
宏观金融类：文字早评2025/12/24-20251224
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-24 00:57