贵金属：贵金属日报2025-12-24-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the perspective of the medium - term overseas monetary policy trend, the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates and expand its balance sheet, and the prices of gold and silver will still show a continuously strong performance. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is from 983 to 1100 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver, it is from 15,666 to 17,500 yuan/kilogram [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.42% to 1012.58 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 4.14% to 16,961.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4515.00 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver at 71.61 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index was at 97.90 [2] - The US economic data released yesterday significantly exceeded market expectations, suppressing the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2] 3.2 US Economic Data - The initial annualized quarterly - on - quarterly value of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, significantly higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%. However, many items were affected by the price of medical insurance. The price index of the US GDP in the third quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.1%. This economic data did not reflect the improvement of the US economic fundamentals but rather the resilience of the price level [3] - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the US in December was - 7, better than the expected - 10 and the previous value of - 15 [3] 3.3 Market Expectations for Fed Interest Rate Cuts - After the data release, the market reduced the pricing of the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year. The CME Interest Rate Observer showed that the current market expectation for a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the January FOMC meeting next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 86.7% [3] - Trump claimed that "anyone who opposes him will never get the position of Federal Reserve Chairman" and said that if the market performs well, he hopes the new Federal Reserve Chairman will lower interest rates [3] 3.4 Gold and Silver Data Details - Gold: For COMEX gold, the CFTC latest - reported weekly open interest was 43.26 million lots (up 3.36% from 41.85 million lots), and the inventory was 1125 tons (up 0.11% from 1123 tons). For SHFE gold, the open interest was 37.09 million lots (up 1.27% from 36.63 million lots), and the inventory was 93.71 tons (up 2.18% from 91.72 tons). The settled funds flowed in by 2.62% to 601.97 billion yuan [6] - Silver: For COMEX silver, the CFTC latest - reported weekly open interest was 15.48 million lots (up 2.61% from 15.08 million lots), and the inventory was 14,024 tons (up 0.05% from 14,017 tons). For SHFE silver, the open interest was 79.49 million lots (up 1.19% from 78.56 million lots), and the inventory was 899.66 tons (down 0.20% from 901.47 tons). The settled funds flowed in by 2.63% to 352.86 billion yuan [6]