农产品早报2025-12-24：五矿期货农产品早报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybean and Meal: CBOT soybeans declined slightly on Tuesday, pressured by slow sales in the US and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. Domestic soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, supported by costs but with pressure on crushing margins [2][5]. - Oils and Fats: Domestic oils continued to rebound on Tuesday. The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil improved month - on - month, but high year - on - year production limited the upside. The medium - term de - stocking expectation in Southeast Asia has weakened. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [7][9]. - Sugar: The new sugar - crushing season is expected to see increased production in major sugar - producing countries, shifting the global supply - demand balance from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - Cotton: The downstream operating rate remains at a medium level, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to potential adjustments in the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy, there has been short - term capital inflow, but the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low [17]. - Eggs: The spot price is expected to be mostly stable with slight declines in some areas. The near - term futures contract may continue to squeeze the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term futures contract has expectations of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high [19][20]. - Pigs: After the Winter Solstice, demand decreases marginally but still supports pig prices. The supply is large, and the weight decline is limited. The near - term contract is expected to trade in a range, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction [22][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Meal - Market Conditions: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose about 10 yuan/ton on Monday with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.1306 million tons, slightly higher than last week. Last week, the inventory days of feed enterprises increased by 0.1 days to 9.23 days, port soybean inventories decreased by 500,000 tons, but soybean meal inventories increased due to high crushing volume, about 550,000 tons higher year - on - year [2]. - Strategy: Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, and the bottom of the import cost may have been reached, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5]. Oils and Fats - Market Conditions: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.15% in the first 20 days of December. Ship - loading agency data indicates that exports decreased by 0.87% in the first 20 days. China's palm oil imports in November 2025 were 334,052.37 tons, a significant increase. Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. Domestic oils continued to rebound on Tuesday [7]. - Strategy: Excessive production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed palm oil prices. The current high - supply and high - inventory situation may reverse in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of a sharp decline due to high production in 2018 - 2019 should be noted. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [9]. Sugar - Market Conditions: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to rebound, with the May contract closing at 5,155 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. In November 2025, China's sugar imports decreased by 90,000 tons year - on - year, while cumulative imports from January - November increased by 380,000 tons year - on - year. Brazilian and Indian sugar production data showed different trends [11][12]. - Strategy: The new sugar - crushing season is expected to see increased production in major sugar - producing countries, and the global supply - demand balance has shifted to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. Cotton - Market Conditions: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, with the May contract closing at 14,140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. Spot prices also increased. In November 2025, China's cotton imports increased by 10,000 tons year - on - year. As of December 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, slightly lower. The global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season was adjusted down by 60,000 tons [14][15]. - Strategy: The downstream demand is not bad after the peak season, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to potential adjustments in the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy, there has been short - term capital inflow, but the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low [17]. Eggs - Market Conditions: Most national egg prices were stable on Tuesday, with some areas seeing a slight decline. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. Supply is normal, and terminal participation is conservative [19]. - Strategy: The previous over - expectation of the peak - season inventory has led to a high premium in the futures market. The near - term contract may continue to squeeze the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high [20]. Pigs - Market Conditions: Domestic pig prices mostly rose on Tuesday, with some areas stable or slightly lower. The average price in Henan increased by 0.07 yuan to 11.69 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained stable at 11.61 yuan/kg. Northern secondary fattening purchases increased, and prices may be stable with a slight upward trend. Southern demand is lower than expected, with prices stable and slightly higher in the southwest [22]. - Strategy: After the Winter Solstice, demand decreases marginally but still supports pig prices. The supply is large, and the weight decline is limited. The near - term contract is expected to trade in a range, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction [23].