山金期货黑色板块日报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and winter storage still needs some time. The 05 contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil has not broken out of the recent trading range. For both rebar and hot - rolled coil, it is recommended to hold long positions for medium - term trading [2]. - For iron ore, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories put pressure on futures prices. However, long positions can still be held for medium - term trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: Last week, rebar production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of five major steel products declined. Overall inventory continued to fall. Rebar's apparent demand rebounded slightly, while the overall apparent demand of the five major products decreased. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2]. - Cost: The sharp rebound in coking coal and coke prices in recent days has increased the cost support for the futures market [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the trading range and then rebounded quickly, remaining within the recent trading range without a downward breakthrough [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions for medium - term trading [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Demand: Last week, the production and apparent demand of five major steel products decreased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The reduction in steel mill production suppresses raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [4]. - Supply: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices [4]. - Technical Analysis: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range trading at a relatively high level [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions for medium - term trading [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In November 2025, global crude steel production was 140.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. From January to November 2025, global crude steel production was 1.6622 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. China's steel production in November was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9% [7]. - In mid - December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 470,000 tons or 5.9%. The inventory decline continued to widen [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 164.3615 million tons, an increase of 3.4349 million tons from last Monday. Port inventory accumulation accelerated [7]. - From December 15th to 21st, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.247 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 527,000 tons, showing a slight rebound [7].