金信期货日刊-20251224

Report Overview - Report Date: December 24, 2025 [1] - Report Name: GOLDTRUST FUTURES DAILY REPORT Investment Ratings - The report is bullish on the coking coal main contract [2] Core Views - There are five reasons to be bullish on the coking coal main contract: low valuation, policy support, approaching restocking demand, tightening supply, and sentiment repair [3] - For the stock index futures, the cycle shows a pullback after reaching a high, but the decline is limited, and the strong feature remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips and not to chase the rise [5] - Gold shows signs of starting to rise again after a period of sideways consolidation, and it is advisable to try going long [10] - Iron ore is searching for a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [14] - Glass is expected to be weak in the short - term, with a bearish view on the daily - line level [16] - Methanol in the sales area is showing a strong market due to factors such as increased freight costs and growing demand [19] - Pulp demand is expected to improve overall, and an oscillating trend is predicted [22] Summary by Categories Coking Coal - Valuation has reached a low level, with a cumulative decline of over 20% in December, hitting a new low for the year. The current price is lower than the Mongolian coal import cost line, and the spot premium over the futures forms a safety cushion [3] - Six departments have issued a document to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and relevant policies are expected to improve the industry order and boost market expectations [3] - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 12% lower than in previous years. The pre - Spring Festival winter storage restocking window is approaching, which will create a phased demand impulse [3] - Some coal mines have limited production after completing their annual production tasks, and the winter Mongolian coal port clearance is easily affected by weather, leading to a narrowing expectation of import growth [3] - After the continuous outflow of short - selling funds, policy benefits have driven a sharp rebound in the market, and market sentiment has shifted from pessimism to repair, with sufficient technical rebound momentum [3] Stock Index Futures - The cycle shows a pullback after reaching a high, but the decline is limited, and the strong feature remains unchanged. It is recommended to continue to buy on dips and not to chase the rise [5] Gold - After a period of sideways consolidation, gold shows signs of starting to rise again, and it is advisable to try going long [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermenting. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still searching for a bottom, and domestic demand support is weak [14] - Technically, it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [14] Glass - The daily melting volume has declined, and there has been another inventory reduction this week. The main driving forces are the supply - side clearance due to policy - end stimulus policies and anti - involution policies [17] - Technically, with consecutive negative daily - line closes, a bearish view is taken in the short - term [16] Methanol - Recently, freight costs have increased significantly, leading to higher arrival costs in the sales area. The demand has shown an increasing trend due to the stable 80% load of the newly built olefin project of Lianhong [19] - As the port methanol price continues to rise, the amount of port goods flowing back to Shandong has gradually decreased, and the market in the sales area is strong under multiple positive factors [19] Pulp - With the continuous boost of domestic demand by domestic policies, increased production cuts by overseas pulp mills, and the gradual clearance of backward papermaking production capacity, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve overall [22] - An oscillating trend is predicted [22]