LPG液化气周报：短期小幅支撑，上方空间有限-20251224

Report Title LPG Liquefied Gas Weekly Report: Short - term Slight Support with Limited Upside Space [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main LPG contract changed to 2602. Due to the large previous decline, there was a slight repair, and the fundamentals this period also supported the price. The supply had no more increment, and although the combustion demand lacked highlights, the increase in PDH operation supported the price floor. With a small reduction in warehouse - receipt pressure, the 02 contract showed a strong trend this week. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the high costs of downstream chemical enterprises and the weak PP trend would cause PDH negative feedback to affect the operation [4]. - For trading strategies, maintain a strategy of shorting on rallies for single - side trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Analysis: The main LPG contract 2602 had a slight upward repair due to previous decline and fundamental support. Supply had no new increments, combustion demand was lackluster, but PDH operation increase supported the price. However, PDH negative feedback may occur in the long - term [4]. - Strategies: - Single - side: Maintain a strategy of shorting on rallies [5]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [5]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks have many uncertainties. The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict drives oil prices down, while the tense situation in Venezuela drives them up. - From the supply - demand perspective, the surplus pressure keeps oil prices oscillating at this year's low, lacking the momentum for a significant short - term rebound. - In the medium - term, as the surplus pressure cannot be disproven, oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - Refinery Production: The capacity utilization rate of domestic major crude oil refineries remained flat this week, at a relatively low level this year but normal for the historical period due to seasonal maintenance. With the end of autumn maintenance, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The production utilization rate of domestic independent crude oil refineries slightly decreased by 0.01% to 64.33%, still at a high level this year and historically. The overall supply is expected to remain stable next week [13]. - Imports: The number of LPG ships arriving in China has rebounded. This week, the LPG arrival volume was 677,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 56,000 tons. The freight rates of three classic VLGC routes have increased slightly. Due to the high external prices, domestic PDH enterprises are in a theoretical loss, reducing their willingness to import significantly [16]. 3.2.3 Demand - The PDH operation rate increased by 2.13% to over 75%, at a high level this year. The MTBE operation rate slightly decreased by 0.85% but remained at a relatively high level. Although the combustion demand may be lackluster due to the expected warm winter, the chemical demand provides obvious support [19]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The LPG port inventory decreased this week due to a slight reduction in arrivals and an increase in chemical demand. The port storage capacity ratio also continued to decline, below the seasonal level. The in - plant inventory also slightly decreased. The storage capacity utilization rates of tertiary stations in different regions showed a differentiated trend, which may be due to uneven temperatures [20][23]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Price Data No specific analysis provided, only price - related charts are shown, including Brent, WTI, CP, FEI, and LPG main contract prices [27]. 3.3.2 Spread Data No specific analysis provided, only spread - related charts are shown, including the spread between different regions' civilian LPG and the main contract, and the seasonal basis of LPG [31]. 3.3.3 Disk Profit Data No specific analysis provided, only profit - related charts are shown, including import profit, PDH propylene profit, and PDH polypropylene profit [34]. 3.3.4 Spot Profit Data No specific analysis provided, only profit - related charts are shown, including import profit under different trade terms, PDH propylene profit, PDH polypropylene profit, and etherification gross profit [37]. 3.3.5 Supply Data - The data shows the seasonal trends of LPG production, crude oil processing volume, and the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries [40]. - There are also schedules for domestic major refinery device overhauls and PDH device overhauls of some enterprises [43][45]. 3.3.6 Inventory Data The data shows the seasonal trends of LPG port inventory, port storage capacity ratio, and the storage capacity utilization rate of tertiary stations [52].