国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251224

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products of Guotai Junan Futures on December 24, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term rebound with limited upside [2] - Soybean oil: Driven little by US soybeans, mainly operate within a range [2] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market fluctuates [2] - Corn: Focus on spot prices [2] - Cotton: Futures prices fluctuate strongly, pay attention to the overall market sentiment [2] - Eggs: Fluctuate and adjust [2] - Pigs: Secondary fattening is relatively active [2] - Peanuts: Focus on oil mills' purchases [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,486 yuan/ton with a 0.86% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,484 yuan/ton with a - 0.02% change. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,772 yuan/ton with no change, and night - session closing price was 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% decrease. [4] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. It plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) from next year. The rainy season in Indonesia is expected to return to normal in 2026. [5][6] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2,745 yuan/ton with a + 0.18% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,756 yuan/ton with a + 0.51% increase. DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price was 4,104 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% decrease, and night - session closing price was 4,118 yuan/ton with a + 0.34% increase. [9] - Macro and Industry News: On December 23, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed. As of December 11, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 2,396,198 tons, a 68.3% increase from the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 177 million tons. [9][11] Corn - Fundamental Data: The closing price of C2603 was 2,189 yuan/ton with a - 0.41% change, and C2601's day - session closing price was 2,210 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% decrease, and night - session closing price was 2,213 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase. [13] - Macro and Industry News: The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 yuan/ton in some areas, and the Guangdong Shekou price also decreased by 10 yuan/ton. [14] Cotton - Fundamental Data: CF2605's day - session closing price was 14,140 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and night - session closing price was 14,135 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% decrease. CY2603's day - session closing price was 20,185 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase, and night - session closing price was 20,210 yuan/ton with a 0.12% increase. [16] - Macro and Industry News: The domestic cotton spot market was actively traded, and the price of pure cotton yarn was stable with an upward trend. ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to the weakening US dollar. [17][18] Eggs - Fundamental Data: The closing price of egg 2601 was 3,027 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.01% decrease, and egg 2602 was 2,876 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.72% decrease. [23] - No macro and industry news provided Pigs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 11,680 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 11,800 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 11,960 yuan/ton. [27] - Market Information: Some companies registered warehouse receipts, and the Ministry of Commerce determined that imported pork and by - products from the EU were dumped. [28][29] Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The closing price of PK601 was 8,068 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase, and PK603 was 7,950 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% decrease. [32] - Spot Market Focus: The prices in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were basically stable, with low supply and demand [33]