集运指数（欧线）：近月震荡，远月关注加沙第二阶段停火谈判进展

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The near - term contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) are oscillating weakly, and the far - term contracts need to focus on the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza [1][9] - For the 2602 contract, the core issues are the price height, inflection point time, and price decline rate. It is expected to oscillate widely between 1700 - 1900 points in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [11][13] - For the 2604 contract, shorting on rallies has a relatively higher winning rate. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored at the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, 1031 points. It is recommended to roll short following the 02 valuation [13] - For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza and consider gradually shorting [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Data: EC2512 closed at 1,630.1 with a daily increase of 0.21%, EC2602 at 1,719.8 with a 3.66% increase, and EC2604 at 1,128.8 with a 1.66% increase. The difference between EC2512 and EC2604 is 501.3, and between EC2602 and EC2604 is 591.0 [1] - Freight Rate Index: The SCFIS European route was at 1,589.20 points with a weekly increase of 5.2%, and the SCFIS US - West route was at 962.10 points with a 4.1% increase. The SCFI European route was at $1,533/TEU with a bi - weekly decrease of 0.3%, and the SCFI US - West route was at $1,992/FEU with an 11.9% increase [1] - Spot Freight Rates: Different carriers' prices for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route range from $1,418 - $3,010 for 40'GP and $1,530 - $1,955 for 20'GP [1] - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was at 98.26, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.03 [1] 3.2 Macro News - On December 19, Maersk's Sebarok, a 6,500 TEU Singapore - flagged container ship built in 2007, completed crossing the Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea, the first Maersk ship to pass through the strait in nearly two years, operating on the MECL route (India - US) [8][10] - On December 23, the Israeli Defense Minister's Office stated that the Israeli government has no intention of establishing Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip, after earlier remarks from the defense minister about building new "outposts" in northern Gaza [8] 3.3 Market Analysis - Supply Side: In January, the weekly average capacity is maintained at 318,000 TEU/week. The undetermined voyages are reduced to 1 ship. The capacity in the second week is revised down from 332,000 to 318,000 TEU due to new passive blank sailings in AEU7, and the capacity in the fourth week is revised up from 315,000 to 329,000 TEU [9] - Demand Side: In late December, major shipping companies started the container - skipping mode. The loading performance of the PA Alliance has improved significantly, laying the foundation for the price increase in early January. The overall booking in the first week of January is slow, and the peak cargo volume may appear around mid - January and then decline [10] - Price Forecast: In early January, the second - week SPOT average of some carriers is expected to be around $2,550 - $2,600. The weekly FAK average in the second week is revised down by $100 to around $2,700/FEU. In late January, shipping companies have the incentive to reduce prices to stockpile goods [12][13]