棉花：期价震荡偏强，注意整体市场情绪

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information available on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The cotton futures price is oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,140 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.50%, and the night - session closing price was 14,135 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.04%. The trading volume was 308,398 lots, a decrease of 144,220 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,123,245 lots, an increase of 7,199 lots. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,185 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.37%, and the night - session closing price was 20,210 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.12%. The trading volume was 8,895 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 23,262 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 64.02 cents/pound with an increase of 0.64% [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,088, an increase of 13 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 4,001, an increase of 170. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 14, an increase of 5 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 9 [1]. - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,985 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,246 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,242 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan or 0.73% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,213 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 0.00 cents/pound, a decrease of 72 cents or 100.00% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread was decreased by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 remained unchanged at 830 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The overall transaction of domestic cotton spot was relatively active. The fixed - price trading continued to improve, while the point - price trading was relatively sluggish. The fixed - price quotes of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4130/30B with impurity within 3.5 were mostly above 15,000 yuan for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. Some fixed - price transactions of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30B with impurity within 3 were at 15,100 - 15,150 yuan (public standard) for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight increase, and the sales were differentiated. Driven by the continuous rise in the upstream cotton price, the overall quotation of cotton yarn was firm. High - count combed yarn was the main force for price increases and had good sales, while the price of low - count yarn (including rotor - spun yarn) was stable due to inventory accumulation. The downstream weaving market was in a strong off - season atmosphere, with no obvious intention to replenish stocks. The weak demand dragged down the overall transaction. Although the pre - Spring Festival stocking expectation provided phased support for medium - and low - count yarns, it was difficult to change the overall off - season pattern [2]. - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday, affected by the weakening of the US dollar [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6].