沥青：窄幅震荡，华东现货提速降价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is experiencing narrow - range fluctuations, with spot prices in East China accelerating their decline [2] - The trend strength of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook [11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - BU2602 closed at 2,977 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.60%, and closed at 2,978 yuan/ton in the night session, up 0.03%. Its trading volume was 242,206 lots yesterday, a decrease of 124,436 lots, and the open interest was 204,742 lots, a decrease of 12,429 lots [3] - BU2603 closed at 2,990 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.57%, and closed at 2,991 yuan/ton in the night session, up 0.03%. Its trading volume was 72,217 lots yesterday, a decrease of 51,364 lots, and the open interest was 145,519 lots, an increase of 6,333 lots [3] - The total asphalt market's warehouse receipts were 54,100 lots yesterday, with no change [3] - Spread Data: - The basis (Shandong - 02) was - 57 yuan/ton yesterday, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - The 02 - 03 inter - period spread was - 13 yuan/ton yesterday, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - The Shandong - South China spread remained at - 40, and the East China - South China spread was 130 yuan/ton yesterday, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - Spot Market Data: - The Shandong wholesale price was 2,920 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change, and the factory - delivered and warehouse - delivered spot prices equivalent to the futures price were 3,076 yuan/ton and 3,222 yuan/ton respectively [3] - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,090 yuan/ton yesterday, down 40 yuan/ton, and the factory - delivered and warehouse - delivered spot prices equivalent to the futures price were 3,192 yuan/ton and 3,258 yuan/ton respectively [3] - Industry Data: - As of December 22, the refinery operating rate was 37.26%, down 0.62% from December 18 [3] - As of December 22, the refinery inventory rate was 27.46%, down 0.04% from December 18 [3] 3.2 Market Information - A supertanker "Kelly" loaded with oil from Venezuela has returned to Venezuelan waters [14] - From December 16 - 22, 2025, the domestic weekly asphalt production was 549,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,000 tons (8.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 72,000 tons (15.1%). The cumulative production from January - December was 29.845 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.191 million tons (7.9%) [14] - As of December 22, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 643,000 tons, a 1.3% increase from December 18. Inventory increased significantly in East China and Shandong due to stable production after intermittent resumption of production in some refineries and lower - than - expected demand [14] - As of December 22, 2025, the inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.04 million tons, a 1.7% increase from December 18. Inventory in East China increased most significantly due to increased ship cargo warehousing and limited actual shipments despite rigid demand [14]