合成橡胶：步入震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the overall upward trend of cis - butadiene rubber has slowed down and gradually entered a volatile pattern. The previous continuous rise was due to the improvement of butadiene fundamentals and strong expectations for the far - month. This week, due to the marginal weakening of the overall fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber and the large premium of futures over spot, the speculative nature of futures prices has weakened and prices have corrected. The butadiene market shows a pattern of neutral reality and strong expectations, and the short - term fundamentals of cis - butadiene rubber are weakening. Overall, the processing profit of cis - butadiene rubber may be compressed, and the futures price has corrected under the high - premium pattern. However, due to the strong expectations for butadiene, there is still some speculation, so it enters a short - term volatile pattern [3] Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (02 contract), the daily closing price was 11,175 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 156,564 lots, a decrease of 17,363 lots; the open interest was 103,099 lots, a decrease of 630 lots; and the turnover was 881.139 million yuan, a decrease of 82.07 million yuan [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract was - 175, an increase of 205; the monthly spread of BR01 - BR05 was - 95, a decrease of 10 [1] - Spot Market: The prices of North China, East China, and South China private cis - butadiene decreased or remained unchanged, while the market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) increased by 150 yuan to 11,000 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan to 11,300 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu decreased by 150 yuan to 7,625 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 25 yuan to 7,850 yuan/ton [1] - Fundamentals: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 76.7608%, with no change; the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 10,534 yuan/ton, with no change; and the cis - butadiene profit was 366 yuan/ton, with no change [1] 2. Industry News - As of December 17, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.45%. The inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises increased [2] - As of December 17, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 36,000 tons, a slight increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Although the inventory change was small this period, there are still some trade - volume inventories and expectations of ocean - going vessel arrivals, so attention should be paid to the phased changes in inventory [2][3]