棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限，豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is expected to have a short - term rebound with limited upside potential [1]. - For soybean oil, the driving force from US soybeans is not significant, and range - bound trading is the main strategy [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price is 8,486 yuan/ton with a 0.86% increase, night - session closing price is 8,484 yuan/ton with a - 0.02% change; trading volume is 441,419 lots with an increase of 9,962 lots, open interest is 456,514 lots with an increase of 3,972 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price is 7,772 yuan/ton with no change, night - session closing price is 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; trading volume is 204,327 lots with a decrease of 34,459 lots, open interest is 656,874 lots with a decrease of 1,716 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price is 8,847 yuan/ton with a - 0.19% change, night - session closing price is 8,801 yuan/ton with a - 0.52% change; trading volume is 233,197 lots with a decrease of 48,158 lots, open interest is 204,202 lots with an increase of 4,135 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price is 4,036 ringgit/ton with a 1.23% increase, night - session closing price is 4,010 ringgit/ton with a - 0.64% change [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 48.77 cents/pound with a - 0.63% change [1]. - Spot Data - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,370 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,330 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price is 9,530 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: 1,015 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - Basis and Spread Data - Palm oil basis in Guangdong is - 116 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong is 558 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi is 683 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread is 361 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread is - 714 yuan/ton; palm oil 1 - 5 spread is - 26 yuan/ton; soybean oil 1 - 5 spread is 222 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread is 204 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's biodiesel quota for 2026 is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. The country has implemented the B40 policy and plans to increase the blending ratio to B50 in 2026, and is currently testing the B50 standard [2][3]. - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to return to normal in 2026, and the La Nina weather pattern is expected to weaken by the end of the first quarter, which may optimize palm oil harvest efficiency [3]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop output is estimated to be 178.3 million tons, with a planting area of 49.1 million hectares and a yield of 3.63 tons per hectare [4]. - Argentina's November soybean crushing volume was 3,493,523 tons, with soybean oil output of 687,188 tons and soybean meal output of 2,559,305 tons. As of December 1, 2025, soybean inventory was 2,148,146 tons, soybean oil inventory was 282,301 tons, and soybean meal inventory was 704,678 tons [4]. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0; soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [5]