Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, the overall rebound strength has decreased, and it is likely to be mainly in a weak oscillation. It is recommended for intraday trading with a long - term bearish mindset [1][3]. - For the two - meal (bean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, there is a low - level rebound, and one should wait for the end of the rebound to find new selling points [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Review - On December 23, the departure of a large number of short - sellers drove the overall rebound of the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices and changes of various contracts are as follows: - Soybean oil: The Y2605 contract closed at 7772 yuan/ton, with a daily - closing - price increase of 0% and a daily reduction of 1716 lots; the Y2609 contract closed at 7718 yuan/ton, with a 0.31% increase and a reduction of 648 lots [1]. - Palm oil: The P2605 contract closed at 8486 yuan/ton, with a 0.86% increase and an increase of 3972 lots; the P2609 contract closed at 8372 yuan/ton, with a 0.89% increase and an increase of 759 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The OI2605 contract closed at 8847 yuan/ton, with a 0.19% decrease and an increase of 4135 lots; the OI2609 contract closed at 8848 yuan/ton, with a 0.23% decrease and an increase of 114 lots [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on December 23 due to strong US economic growth and potential supply disruptions. The most actively traded February crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose 37 cents or 0.64%, settling at $58.38 per barrel [1]. - As of the end of November, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies was 1.513 billion pounds, up 15.95% from the end of October and 39.58% year - on - year. The EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 RVO next year, which pressured the soybean oil market [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1]. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the FFB yield down 6.26% and the OER down 0.17% [1]. - Indonesia's B50 implementation has been postponed to the second half of 2026 [1]. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase from November 1 - 20. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - In October, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.8 million tons, a nearly 3% decline from the same period last year. Its crude palm oil production was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than the previous month's 2.59 million tons [1]. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a 0.77% month - on - month decrease, and an 8.30% year - on - year increase [1][3]. Market Logic - Externally, supply concerns and a strong US economy drove the rebound of crude oil, but poor export expectations and the delay of the US biofuel policy pressured US soybean oil. For Malaysian palm oil, despite the rise in international crude oil, overall inventory pressure in Southeast Asia and inactive purchases from major consuming countries led to a lack of rebound momentum [3]. - Domestically, for soybean oil, factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating short - term supply shortages, but high oil - mill crushing volumes and operating rates coexisted with cautious purchasing by traders. For palm oil, attention should be paid to whether the rebound of Malaysian palm oil can continue. Domestic palm oil inventory increased, and technically, the 05 contract faced pressure from the 20 - day moving average. For rapeseed oil, the inventory at East China ports continued to decline, and the spot price fluctuated with the market, with the basis showing a narrow - range adjustment [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Exit short - term long positions in vegetable oils, conduct intraday trading for new orders, and maintain a long - term bearish mindset. Provide support and resistance levels for various contracts [3]. - Arbitrage: None available [3]. Two - Meal (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Review - On December 23, the double - meal futures were boosted by the possible conversion of Cofco auctions into targeted sales. The closing prices and changes of various contracts are as follows: - Bean meal: The M2605 contract closed with a 0.15% increase and an increase of 17,263 lots; the M2609 contract closed with a 0.21% increase and an increase of 5,965 lots [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The RM2605 contract closed with a 0.51% increase and an increase of 15,829 lots; the RM2609 contract closed with a 0.42% increase and an increase of 1,550 lots [3]. Important Information - The USDA estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting and increase soybean planting to 85 million acres. Previously, S&P Global predicted a 4% increase in US soybean planting in 2026, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres [3]. - On Friday, private exporters reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 season [3]. - As of December 11, 97% of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting was completed, up from 94% a week ago. The stable rainfall was beneficial for the final planting and growth [3][4]. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate of 175 million tons [4]. - As of December 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 94.1%, compared with 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 90.6% [4]. - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons [4]. - US farmers welcomed the $12 billion agricultural aid plan but believed it was far from enough to cover the losses of $34 - 44 billion this year [4]. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 764,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons from last week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 109,200 tons, a 1.38% increase from last week; the contract volume was 467,000 tons, a 28.36% decrease from last week. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, unchanged from last week [3][4]. - On December 19, the planned auction of imported soybeans by Cofco was 550,143.732 tons, with an actual transaction of 179,701.674 tons, a transaction rate of 32.66%, and an average transaction price of 3751 yuan/ton [4]. Market Logic - Externally, the strengthening of international crude oil and the depreciation of the US dollar drove US soybeans to stop falling and stabilize. Domestically, most oil - mill fixed - price quotes remained stable, with individual increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Under high - inventory pressure, traders replenished stocks in a rolling manner, and feed mills maintained safety stocks and made rigid purchases. For rapeseed meal, the supply of high - protein rapeseed meal in North and South China was relatively tight, so the basis quotes rose slightly, and it is expected to have strong support below and fluctuate within a range in the short term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Wait for the end of the low - level rebound of bean meal and rapeseed meal to find new selling points. Provide support and resistance levels for various contracts [4][5]. - Arbitrage: None available [5].
格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251224
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-12-24 01:38