品种晨会纪要：宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-24-20251224

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and show a stronger trend intraday, with an overall outlook of stronger operation due to increased geopolitical risks [1] - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The US pressure on Venezuela may lead to a global crude oil supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices, and the domestic crude oil futures may maintain a stable pattern on Wednesday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - Short - term: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile (within one week) [1] - Medium - term: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile (from two weeks to one month) [1] - Intraday: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to show a stronger trend, with a reference view of stronger operation [1][5] 3.2 Price Movement Driving Logic - The main driving force for the recent oil price rebound is the sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation. The US government has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned tankers and plans to seize more tankers. About 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela's oil exports in November were about 600,000 barrels per day. The decrease in the number of tankers going to Venezuela has led to concerns about a global supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices [5]