宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年12月24日）-20251224

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The domestic supply - demand of soybean meal remains loose, and its futures price will continue to oscillate at a low level. The near - month contracts are relatively resilient, but short - term rebound momentum is insufficient [5]. - Palm oil has stopped falling and rebounded in the short term due to the closing of short - profit positions after the release of pessimistic sentiment in Malaysian palm oil. However, the rebound height is restricted by subsequent export data and domestic arrival rhythm [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Time - based Views: Short - term view is "oscillating weakly", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. - Core Logic: Although China's new purchases have boosted US soybean futures prices, they are still in low - level oscillation. Domestic soybean meal inventory has increased week - on - week, contract volume has dropped significantly, indicating reduced market purchasing willingness and shrinking forward orders. The rising oil refinery operating rate has further increased inventory pressure, and the spot price support is limited [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Time - based Views: Short - term view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly" [6][7]. - Core Logic: After the release of pessimistic sentiment in Malaysian palm oil, the closing of short - profit positions in the previous continuous decline of the oil and fat sector has driven the price to stop falling and rebound. However, the oil and fat sector still faces heavy inventory pressure, and the rebound rhythm is affected by the international market. Palm oil is in a resonance stage of international export recovery, domestic inventory pressure relief, and capital game, but the short - term rebound space is restricted [7].