宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025年12月24日）-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The fundamental situation is weak with demand weakening and supply remaining high, but there are some positive factors such as unresolved structural contradictions in the spot market and pre - holiday restocking expectations, which create resistance to the downward movement of prices. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "wide - range oscillation" because the fundamental situation is weak and the ore price is under pressure [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, putting pressure on the ore price. The positive factor is the strong expectation of pre - holiday restocking due to low mill inventories. Domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have both decreased month - on - month but are still at high levels within the year, and overseas ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is shrinking, the overall ore supply remains high. The weakening demand, high supply, and RMB appreciation put pressure on the ore price, while the unresolved spot structural contradictions and pre - holiday restocking expectations create resistance to the price decline [2]