国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2] - Silver: Reached a new high [2] - Copper: The price is rising due to the continuous decline of the US dollar [2] - Zinc: Trading in a sideways range [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2] - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2] - Aluminum: Trading in a narrow range [2] - Alumina: Rebounded from the bottom [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: The overseas market has broken through the previous high, with strong upward momentum [2] - Palladium: Continues to rise following platinum [2] - Nickel: Concerns about Indonesian policies have led to an emotional rally in the market [2] - Stainless steel: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and are affected by news of Indonesian nickel mines [2] Summary by Related Categories Gold - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,014.24, up 1.34% [4]. The trading volume of Comex Gold 2602 was 241,461, an increase of 42,965 from the previous day [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 93,711 kg, an increase of 1,995 kg from the previous day [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, growing at 4.3%, the fastest in two years [7]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 0 [7] Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 16,441, up 1.50% [4]. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2602 was 127,435, an increase of 30,063 from the previous day [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 899,663 kg, a decrease of 1,805 kg from the previous day [4]. - Trend Intensity: Silver trend intensity is 0 [7] Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Copper contract was 93,930, down 0.41%, and the night - session price was 94,890, up 1.02% [8]. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 260,740, a decrease of 144,031 from the previous day [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 49,543 tons, an increase of 1,001 tons from the previous day [8]. - Macro and Industry News: Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru [10]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 1 [10] Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Zinc contract was 23,090 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [11]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Zinc contract was 133,845 lots, a decrease of 579 lots from the previous day [11]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 41,343 tons, a decrease of 1,247 tons from the previous day [11]. - News: The US Q3 GDP grew at 4.3% [12]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 1 [13] Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 16,995 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [14]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 44,610 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots from the previous day [14]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 12,509 tons, a decrease of 1,329 tons from the previous day [14]. - News: The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, growing at 4.3% [15]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15] Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 344,750, up 1.27% [17]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 228,643, a decrease of 11,222 from the previous day [17]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,340 tons, an increase of 655 tons from the previous day [17]. - Macro and Industry News: The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, growing at 4.3% [18]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 1 [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract was 22,195, a decrease of 25 from the previous day [21]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Alumina contract was 168,096, a decrease of 1,987 from the previous day [21]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was - 2.80 million tons [21]. - Comprehensive News: The US October durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [22]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; Alumina trend intensity is 0; Aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [22] Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 619.95, up 9.06% [24]. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 155,413, an increase of 101,107 from the previous day [24]. - Inventory: The inventory of NYMEX platinum was 624,733 ounces (previous day) [24]. - Macro and Industry News: The US economy expanded at a 4.3% rate in Q3 [27]. - Trend Intensity: Platinum trend intensity is 1; Palladium trend intensity is 1 [26] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 123,440 [32]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 386,986, an increase of 190,610 from the previous day [32]. - Industry News: The Indonesian government may adjust the nickel ore production target in 2026 [36]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is + 1; Stainless steel trend intensity is + 1 [36]