铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Metal prices continue to be strong, while the profit - making effect of A - shares weakens. The strong US economic data boosts risk appetite, and the US dollar index weakens, supporting the rise of metal prices. The A - share market may maintain a wide - range weak shock in the short term [2][3]. - Precious metals, including gold, silver, and platinum, hit new highs. The upward trend in the short term is further strengthened, but risks need to be vigilant [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, driven by factors such as Trump's call for interest rate cuts, strong economic data, and the imbalance of global mining and metallurgy production capacity [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as the strengthening of US economic resilience, slightly lower end - of - year consumption, and expected inventory accumulation [8][9]. - Alumina maintains a low level due to potential cost reduction and sufficient supply [10]. - Cast aluminum maintains a high - level shock in the short term under the game of cost and supply - demand factors [11]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the current domestic downstream consumption being divided and the short - term supply - demand contradiction being limited [12]. - Lead prices are expected to consolidate with limited upward and downward drivers due to the weak supply - demand situation at the end of the year [13]. - Tin prices face increased adjustment pressure due to the expected increase in supply and the call from the tin association for market rationality [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a shock in the short term, with supply contraction and relatively stable demand [15][16]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to the game between macro - policy expectations and weak terminal reality, with a pattern of weak supply and demand [17]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be under shock pressure due to the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [18]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to maintain a shock in the short term due to the mixed long - and short - term factors in the market [19]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of South American weather changes on crops [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, affected by factors such as US economic data, Indonesian biofuel policies, and palm oil production and inventory changes [22][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: The initial value of the annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in the US in the third quarter was 4.3%, significantly exceeding expectations. The PCE price index rose to 2.8%. After the data release, the market's expectation of the first interest rate cut next year was postponed to June. The US stock market rose, the US dollar index weakened, and metal prices were strong. Gold exceeded $4,500 per ounce, silver exceeded $70 per ounce, and copper exceeded $12,000 per ton [2]. - Domestic: The central government emphasized the work of central state - owned enterprises, and the National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference set goals for the real estate market in 2026. The A - share market rose slightly with heavy volume, but the profit - making effect was weak. The market may maintain a wide - range weak shock in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to rise strongly. COMEX gold futures exceeded $4,510 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose more than 4% to a record high. Domestic platinum and palladium prices soared, and platinum futures hit the daily limit for two consecutive days. The price increase was driven by domestic funds, and the market sentiment was high, but risks need to be vigilant [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - Shanghai copper and LME copper continued to rise, with LME copper exceeding $12,000 per ton. Trump called for interest rate cuts, and the adjusted GDP growth rate in the US in the third quarter was 4.3%. The supply - demand imbalance in the global mining and metallurgy industry and the rise of precious metals drove copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain strong in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum showed different trends. The US economic data strengthened the market's confidence in the economic resilience, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in January next year decreased. At the end of the year, consumption was slightly lower, and inventory was expected to accumulate. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][9]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures price rose slightly, and the spot price fell. There were rumors that the bauxite price in Guinea would fall in the first quarter, and the supply of alumina remained abundant. The fundamentals were bearish, and the price maintained a low level [10]. 3.1.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was flat. The supply - demand situation was weak, and the cost support was strengthened. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [11]. 3.1.7 Zinc - Shanghai zinc and LME zinc fluctuated. The US economic growth in the third quarter was 4.3%, which hit the interest rate cut expectation. The domestic downstream consumption was divided, and the spot premium was slightly reduced. Zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. 3.1.8 Lead - Shanghai lead and LME lead fluctuated. At the end of the year, the number of market quotes decreased, and the downstream procurement was weak. The supply - demand situation was weak, and lead prices are expected to consolidate [13]. 3.1.9 Tin - Shanghai tin and LME tin fluctuated. The supply - side risks decreased, and the tin association called for market rationality. Tin prices face increased adjustment pressure [14]. 3.1.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices rebounded slightly. The supply in Xinjiang was at a relatively high level, while that in the southwest was weak. The demand was relatively stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to maintain a shock in the short term [15][16]. 3.1.11 Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures fluctuated and adjusted. The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference set goals for the real estate market in 2026. The steel market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [17]. 3.1.12 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fluctuated and adjusted. The overseas supply was at a high level, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The steel mill's profit shrank, and the demand was weak. Iron ore prices are expected to be under shock pressure [18]. 3.1.13 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The supply of coking coal was generally stable, and the profit of coke enterprises shrank after the third round of price cuts. The market was mixed with long - and short - term factors, and prices are expected to maintain a shock in the short term [19]. 3.1.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends. The US soybean export sales increased, and the expected output of Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged. Attention should be paid to the impact of South American weather changes on crops. The domestic supply was sufficient, and prices are expected to fluctuate [20][21]. 3.1.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil futures rose. Indonesia's biofuel quota in 2026 was basically the same as that in 2025. If the B50 plan is implemented, the demand for palm oil will increase significantly. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the export demand improved. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [22][23]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts on December 23, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc., in both domestic (SHFE) and international (LME) markets [24]. 3.3 Industry Data Perspective - The report presents detailed industry data for various metals, such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, etc., including prices, inventory changes, basis, and other indicators on December 23 and December 22 [25][28][30].