国新国证期货早报-20251224

1. Market Performance on December 23, 2025 Stock Market - A - share three major indices closed in the red. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07% to 3919.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27% to 13368.99 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.41% to 3205.01 points. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1899.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 37.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4620.73, a环比 increase of 9.11 [2] Futures Market Energy and Chemicals - The coke weighted index was in narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1719.3, a环比 increase of 9.3 [2] - The coking coal weighted index was in range - bound consolidation, closing at 1113.7 yuan, a环比 increase of 25.1 [3] - The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated higher due to factors such as the rise of US sugar and short - covering. As of December 20, 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 7.8122 million tons, a decrease of 1.3675 million tons (14.9%) compared with the same period last year; sugar production was 639,300 tons, a decrease of 106,200 tons (14.25%) [4] - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on December 23 due to short - covering boosted by the rising crude oil price. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao area (bonded and general trade) was 5.152 million tons, a环比 increase of 163,000 tons (3.28%) [4] Agricultural Products - On the international market, CBOT soybean futures fell slightly on December 23. Brazil is expected to have a record - breaking harvest this year. AgRural expects Brazil's soybean output to reach 180.4 million tons. In the domestic market, the M2605 main contract closed at 2741 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. China's soybean imports in November were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.32% [6] - The LH2603 main contract of live pigs closed at 11,415 yuan/ton on December 23, up 0.62%. The supply of live pigs in the market is high, and the demand shows marginal improvement [6] - Palm oil continued to rise on December 23. The P2605 contract closed at 8486, up 0.86%. Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, and it plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year [6] Metals - The main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 94,030 yuan/ton, closed at 93,930 yuan/ton, with the highest at 94,290 yuan/ton and the lowest at 93,620 yuan/ton on December 23. The trading volume was 139,000 lots and the open interest was 241,000 lots [6] - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,135 yuan/ton on the night of December 23, and the cotton inventory increased by 13 lots compared with the previous day [6] - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 779, closed at 770, with a daily reduction of 87 lots on December 23. The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [7] - The 2605 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.26% at 778.5 yuan on December 23. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [7] - The 2602 main contract of asphalt closed up 0.27% at 2977 yuan on December 23. The asphalt production of local refineries in January decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [7] - On December 23, rb2605 of steel was reported at 3128 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3281 yuan/ton. The demand in the off - season shows certain resilience, and the steel price may fluctuate in a narrow range [7] - The ao2601 of alumina was reported at 2520 yuan/ton on December 23. The domestic alumina production capacity is high, the supply pressure exists, and the downstream demand increment is limited [7] - The al2602 of Shanghai aluminum was reported at 22,195 yuan/ton on December 23. The supply is stable, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is cooling [7] 2. Key Factors Affecting the Market Coke and Coking Coal - For coke, the third round of price cuts has fully landed, the coking profit is average, the daily output has slightly decreased, the inventory has slightly decreased, and the downstream procurement is mainly on - demand [4] - For coking coal, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year. The output of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction transactions are okay, the terminal inventory has increased, and the total inventory has slightly increased [4] Other Commodities - For copper, the copper concentrate processing fee is low, the mine supply tension is expected to intensify, the smelting cost support is strong, the refined copper supply has slightly increased, the downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the new - energy copper foil demand is relatively strong [6] - For live pigs, the supply side is under pressure due to high - speed slaughter, and the demand side has a certain boost due to the approaching peak of curing in the southwest region [6] - For palm oil, Indonesia's biofuel policy and the test of the B50 standard have an impact on the market [6]