银泰证券研究所日报-20251224

Report Summary Core Views - Most institutions predict that the upward momentum of the market in 2026 will gradually shift from single valuation-driven to "profit + valuation" dual-driven. The 2026 economic policy will focus on encouraging consumption and optimizing consumption incentive policies, and may guide sustainable consumption areas such as service consumption. AI technology-related fields will continue to be the focus of the market, with consistent and long-term policy and growth expectations. [2] - The central bank conducted 59.3 billion yuan of 7-day pledged repurchase on the 23rd, with a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan. The cross-year capital pressure is small this time, and the liquidity gap is small. The money market capital price is stable, and the OMO stock has dropped below 500 billion yuan, reaching a relatively low level this year. The current RMB exchange rate has generally appreciated significantly, and the offshore RMB exchange rate has continuously hit new highs this year, which is related to the depreciation of the US dollar and the short-term release of residents' foreign exchange settlement needs at the end of the year. The current monetary policy has a large space. [2] A-share Market - On the day, the A-share market generally rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.27%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 1,899.841 billion yuan, an increase of 37.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index rose by 0.41%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose by 0.36%. [3] - The total A-share market capitalization was 1.0726 quadrillion yuan, an increase of 2.14 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. The cumulative trading volume this year was 4.078 quadrillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1,720.667 billion yuan. [16] Global Markets - Internationally, the Australian and US stock markets performed prominently on the day, while European stocks showed mixed trends. The Russian RTS Index rose by 1.28%, the Australian S&P 200 Index rose by 1.1%, the Swiss SMI Index rose by 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Index rose by 0.57%. The top decliners included the Indonesia Composite Index, which fell by 0.71%, the Hang Seng Technology Index, which fell by 0.69%, the French CAC40 Index, which fell by 0.21%, and the Hang Seng Index, which fell by 0.11%. [3] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The yield of the 10-year Chinese government bond at maturity was 1.8355%, a change of -0.7BP. The average prices of interbank R001 and R007 on the day were 1.3542% and 1.5028% respectively. [3] - The US dollar index closed at 97.9093, a decline of 0.36%. The US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.0194, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 119 basis points. [4] Industry Performance - In terms of sectors, power equipment, building materials, electronics, and non-ferrous metals led the gains, with increases of 1.12%, 0.88%, 0.58%, and 0.42% respectively. The top decliners were social services, beauty and personal care, commerce and retail, and national defense and military industry. [3] - The top three industries in terms of daily net inflow of funds were power equipment, basic chemicals, and machinery. The top three industries with net inflow of funds at the end of the day were power equipment, national defense and military industry, and non-ferrous metals. [24] - The top three themes in terms of gains and losses were lithium battery electrolyte, glass fiber, and liquid-cooled servers. [24]