铝：窄幅震荡，氧化铝：底部反弹，铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations, the alumina market is expected to rebound from the bottom, and the cast aluminum alloy market will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - In the US, the October durable - goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, far below expectations, but core durable - goods orders increased for seven consecutive months. The manufacturing orders are still growing in absolute terms. The non - defense capital goods orders including aircraft in October grew stronger than expected, and non - defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased by 0.5% month - on - month, up for four consecutive months, indicating strong corporate equipment spending at the beginning of the fourth quarter [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Baysent believes that the Fed has room to adjust the inflation target of 2%. An inflation target range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% is worth discussing after the inflation rate steadily falls to 2% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Electrolytic Aluminum: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 22,195 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,941 US dollars, unchanged. Trading volumes and positions of related contracts showed different degrees of changes. The LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio was 14.32%, and the LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was - 44.27 [1]. - Alumina: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,520 yuan, up 22 yuan from the previous day. Trading volumes and positions of related contracts decreased. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was - 10 yuan [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,265 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. Trading volumes increased, while positions decreased. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was - 95 yuan, and the spot premium was - 170 yuan [1]. Spot Market - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 588,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The aluminum spot import loss was 2,063.71 yuan, and the 3M import loss was 2,010.98 yuan. The export profit of aluminum sheets and coils was 3,580.61 yuan. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,641.59 yuan [1]. - Alumina: The average domestic alumina price was 2,737 yuan, down 14 yuan from the previous day. The alumina price at the Lianyungang port of entry was 2,795 yuan, up 50 yuan. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 147 yuan [1]. - Aluminum Bauxite: The prices of imported bauxite from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea showed different degrees of changes, with the Australian imported bauxite price at 67 US dollars per ton (Al:48 - 50%, Si:8 - 10%) [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 1 yuan, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,300 yuan [1]. - Caustic Soda: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,430 yuan, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend; the trend intensities of alumina and aluminum alloy are 0, indicating a neutral trend [2][3].