Henan Zhongfu Industrial (SH:600595) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-24 02:11Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is a domestic high-end aluminum alloy new material manufacturer, focusing on aluminum deep processing, supported by a dual industrial chain of coal, electricity, and green hydropower aluminum [6][17]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is nearing its capacity ceiling, making it difficult for prices to drop, while demand from new energy vehicles and the power sector is expected to provide growth, offsetting the drag from real estate [6][9]. - Cost pressures from alumina are expected to ease, allowing for significant performance elasticity as new capacities come online and alumina prices decline [6][7]. - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan and plans to distribute at least 60% of its distributable profits as cash dividends over the next three years, indicating strong confidence in future growth [6][35]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 22,761 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 704 million yuan, down 39.3% year-on-year [5]. - For 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 1,833 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 160.5% year-on-year, with earnings per share projected at 0.46 yuan [5][6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 9.7% in 2024 to 15.1% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) forecasted to rise from 4.8% to 11.1% [5][6]. Industry Overview - The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is approaching its ceiling, with the built capacity as of November 2025 at 45.24 million tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [37]. - The demand for aluminum is shifting towards new energy vehicles and electronic power sectors, which are expected to drive growth despite a slowdown in traditional construction demand [47][49]. - The report highlights that the global aluminum market is experiencing a structural change, with new consumption scenarios emerging, such as lightweighting and the substitution of aluminum for copper and steel [49].