宏观金融数据日报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, as the stock index valuation is repaired to a moderately high level, the rapid - rising phase driven by liquidity and market risk preference may be over, and the A - share "slow - bull" pattern is entering the second half. Macro - policies and marginal warming of inflation are expected to improve corporate earnings expectations. Capital market policies may bring incremental funds to the A - share market, and Central Huijin will support the market. The stock index is expected to rise further in 2026 compared to 2025. Futures traders can use the futures discount structure to enhance the winning rate of long strategies [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Macro - financial Data - Interest Rates: DR001 closed at 1.27 with a - 0.10bp change, DR007 at 1.41 with a - 2.30bp change, GC001 at 1.86 with a 33.50bp change, GC007 at 1.71 with a 13.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a - 0.10bp change, 1 - year Treasury at 1.34 with a - 1.25bp change, 5 - year Treasury at 1.53 with a - 1.50bp change, 10 - year Treasury at 1.84 with a - 0.75bp change, and 10 - year US Treasury at 4.16 with a 1.10bp change [3] - LPR: In December, the 1 - year LPR remained at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%, which was in line with expectations due to the stable seven - day reverse repurchase rate, low net interest margins of large banks, and the mortgage rate reset mechanism [4] - Central Bank Operations: The central bank conducted 5.93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an interest rate of 1.40% on the previous day. With 13.53 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 7.6 billion yuan. This week, 45.75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits on Monday and 30 billion yuan of MLF on Thursday [3][4] Stock Index Futures - Closing Prices and Changes: The CSI 300 closed at 4621 with a 0.20% increase, the SSE 50 at 3028 with a 0.24% increase, the CSI 500 at 7257 with a 0.02% increase, and the CSI 1000 at 7392 with a - 0.22% decrease. The corresponding futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) also had respective price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF volume decreased by 0.9% to 92029, and its position increased by 2.7% to 270424 [5] - Market Turnover: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.8998 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 37.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with energy metals, batteries, etc. rising, and tourism hotels, education, etc. falling [5] Futures Premium and Discount - IF: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 7.22%, 5.24%, 4.48%, and 4.42% respectively [7] - IH: The rates were 1.67%, 0.88%, 0.27%, and 0.89% respectively [7] - IC: The rates were 6.96%, 7.02%, 7.14%, and 8.93% respectively [7] - IM: The rates were 10.17%, 10.68%, 11.07%, and 12.02% respectively [7]