早间评论-20251224

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall Market Outlook: The current macro - economic data remains stable, but the recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Market risk preferences have increased, and different asset classes show various trends [6][9]. - Asset - Specific Views: - Bonds: Treasury futures are expected to face some pressure, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. - Equities: Stock index futures are expected to have a gradually rising volatility center, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - Precious Metals: Precious metals are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. - Base Metals and Steel: Most base metals and steel products show weak or volatile trends. Investors can take appropriate short - term trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as shorting at high levels or going long at low levels [14][15][17]. - Energy: Crude oil and fuel oil have different market situations. Crude oil may have long - entry opportunities near key price points, while fuel oil may have room for rebound. Both are currently in a wait - and - see situation [26][27][29]. - Agricultural Products: Different agricultural products have different trends. Some may be in a weak or strong position, and investors need to pay attention to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [62][70][73]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - Market Performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.89%, 0.26%, 0.17%, and 0.07% respectively. The central bank conducted 59.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [5]. - Analysis and Outlook: With stable macro - data but weak recovery momentum, and low treasury yields, treasury futures are expected to face pressure, and investors should be cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: Stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures changed by 0.12%, 0.22%, 0.04%, and - 0.15% respectively [8]. - Analysis and Outlook: Despite weak corporate profit growth, low domestic asset valuations, sufficient economic resilience, and increased market sentiment suggest that the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise, and investors can go long at the right time [9][10]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: Gold and silver main contracts rose by 1.34% and 1.43% respectively. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the US real GDP in Q3 was 4.3%, and the US durable goods orders in October decreased by 2.2% [11][12]. - Analysis and Outlook: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals, which are expected to continue rising. Investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. Base Metals and Steel Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. Tangshan billet was priced at 2960 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar at 3180 - 3320 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3250 - 3270 yuan/ton [14]. - Analysis and Outlook: Due to the long - term decline in real estate demand, approaching demand off - season, and supply - side factors, rebar prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can short at high levels during rebounds [14][15]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: Iron ore futures oscillated. PB powder was priced at 788 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder at 670 yuan/ton [17]. - Analysis and Outlook: With falling iron - water output, increasing imports, and rising port inventories, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Futures may face resistance at previous highs. Investors can short at high levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. Since December, domestic coking coal production has decreased, and the third - round price cut for coke procurement has started [19]. - Analysis and Outlook: In the short term, the futures may continue to rebound. Investors can go long at low levels [19][20]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: Manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts changed by - 0.21% and 0.18% respectively. Manganese ore shipments decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. Ferroalloy production continued to decline [22]. - Analysis and Outlook: Although the overall oversupply pressure persists, there may be long - entry opportunities at low levels after the expansion of spot losses [22][23]. Energy Crude Oil - Market Performance: INE crude oil opened high and closed low, blocked by the 20 - day moving average. Fund managers reduced net short positions, and the number of active oil and gas rigs decreased [24][25]. - Analysis and Outlook: There may be long - entry opportunities near the $60 mark for Brent crude. Currently, investors are advised to wait and see [26][27]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: Fuel oil rose significantly, closing above the 20 - day moving average. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, but it is still much higher than the average [28]. - Analysis and Outlook: Tight Asian spot supply and stable crude oil prices support fuel oil prices. It has large rebound potential, but investors are advised to wait and see [29][30]. Chemicals Polyolefins - Market Performance: PP and LLDPE markets showed weak trends. PP prices were 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and LLDPE prices dropped by 50 - 120 yuan/ton [31]. - Analysis and Outlook: The polyolefin market is in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction in standard product supply may boost market sentiment. Investors are advised to wait and see [31][32]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: Synthetic rubber main contract rose by 0.90%. Raw material prices increased, supply was abundant, and demand was weak [33][34]. - Analysis and Outlook: It is expected to oscillate [35]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: Natural rubber main contracts rose. Domestic supply decreased, and demand was weak. Inventory continued to accumulate [36]. - Analysis and Outlook: It is expected to oscillate [37]. PVC - Market Performance: PVC main contract rose by 3.02%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory decreased slightly [38][39]. - Analysis and Outlook: Pay attention to supply - side changes [39]. Urea - Market Performance: Urea main contract rose by 1.24%. Daily output fluctuated slightly, demand may increase slightly, and inventory was lower than expected [40]. - Analysis and Outlook: The downward space is limited [41]. PX - Market Performance: PX2603 main contract rose by 1.84%. PXN spread adjusted, and supply - demand improved [42]. - Analysis and Outlook: It may oscillate strongly in the short term. Investors can participate at low levels and be vigilant about crude oil and macro - policy changes [43]. PTA - Market Performance: PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.38%. Supply decreased, demand was stable, and processing fees declined [44]. - Analysis and Outlook: It may have upward momentum. Investors can participate at low levels following cost changes [44]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: Ethylene glycol main contract fell by 3.02%. Supply increased, inventory accumulated, and demand support weakened [45][46]. - Analysis and Outlook: It may oscillate at the bottom. Investors can trade within the range and pay attention to inventory and supply changes [46]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: Short - fiber 2602 main contract rose by 1.32%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and cost drive increased [47]. - Analysis and Outlook: It may oscillate following raw material prices. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost and policy changes [47]. Bottle - Grade PET - Market Performance: Bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 1.75%. Processing fees declined, supply decreased slightly, and export growth improved [48]. - Analysis and Outlook: It is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Investors should control risks [48]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract rose by 5.67%. Supply was high, demand improved, and inventory decreased [49]. - Analysis and Outlook: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Performance: Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.04%. Supply was tight, and demand had short - term pressure [50]. - Analysis and Outlook: It will remain at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise [50][51]. Aluminum - Market Performance: Shanghai aluminum main contract rose by 0.16%, and alumina main contract rose by 0.83%. Alumina supply was in surplus, and aluminum demand was average [52][53]. - Analysis and Outlook: It is expected to oscillate at a high level [53][54]. Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.39%. Supply decreased, demand was weak, and inventory increased [55]. - Analysis and Outlook: It will oscillate and adjust [55][56]. Lead - Market Performance: Lead market situation is similar to zinc, with weak supply - demand and limited upward and downward space [57]. - Analysis and Outlook: It will oscillate and adjust [57][58]. Tin - Market Performance: Tin main contract fell by 1.63%. Supply was tight, and demand had certain resilience [59]. - Analysis and Outlook: It is expected to oscillate strongly [59]. Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel main contract rose by 2.52%. Policy risks increased, supply was in surplus, and demand was weak [60]. - Analysis and Outlook: Pay attention to Indonesian policies [60]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. Brazilian soybean planting was almost completed, and domestic oil - mill crushing was at a high level [61][62]. - Analysis and Outlook: Soybean meal may have long - entry opportunities at low levels, and soybean oil may have upward potential after breaking through. Investors can consider long - entry opportunities in low - level call options [62]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil rose. Indonesian biodiesel policy and export data changed, and domestic inventory was at a medium level [63]. - Analysis and Outlook: Investors are advised to wait and see [65]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed futures fell slightly. Domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports changed, and inventory levels were different [66]. - Analysis and Outlook: Investors are advised to wait and see [67]. Cotton - Market Performance: Domestic cotton futures were strong, and overseas cotton rose. Xinjiang's cotton policy and supply - demand reports affected the market [68][70]. - Analysis and Outlook: Cotton prices are expected to be strong [70][71]. Sugar - Market Performance: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly, and overseas raw sugar rose. Domestic and overseas sugar production and import data changed [72][73]. - Analysis and Outlook: It will oscillate weakly [74]. Apples - Market Performance: Apple futures oscillated, and inventory decreased slightly. New - season production and quality declined [75][77]. - Analysis and Outlook: Apple prices are expected to be strong [77][78]. Pigs - Market Performance: The national average pig price rose slightly. Supply and demand factors such as sow inventory, planned slaughter, and consumption affected the market [79][80]. - Analysis and Outlook: Investors are advised to wait and see and follow the slaughter rhythm and consumption changes [80]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg prices were stable. Egg production was high, and demand was weak [81][82]. - Analysis and Outlook: Investors are advised to wait and see [83]. Corn and Corn Starch - Market Performance: Corn and corn starch futures fell. North - port inventory increased, and demand was slightly improved [84][85]. - Analysis and Outlook: Wait for the release of supply pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86].