冠通期货资讯早间报-20251224

Section 1: Overnight Market Trends - The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.79% to $58.47 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.62% to $61.96 per barrel [5] - Most London base metals rose, with LME nickel up 2.38% at $15,640.00 per ton, LME copper up 1.09% at $12,055.00 per ton, etc [5] - As of 23:00, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with caustic soda up over 2%, PX up over 1%, etc; some contracts like butadiene rubber fell [6] - As of 1:00, Shanghai copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. main contracts had different changes, with Shanghai nickel up 2.52% and Shanghai tin down 1.63% [6] - As of 2:30, Shanghai gold, silver, and SC crude oil main contracts rose [7] Section 2: Important News Macroeconomic News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued opinions to promote the large - scale development of solar thermal power generation, aiming for a total installed capacity of about 15 million kilowatts by 2030 [9] - The US economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years in Q3, with real GDP annualized quarterly rate at 4.3% [9] - Investors reduced bets on the Fed's rate cut next year, with the probability of a rate cut in the January 28 meeting at about 17% [10] - US Treasury Secretary Baysent supported re - considering the Fed's 2% inflation target, with possible adjusted ranges [11] - US President Trump commented on Q3 GDP data and criticized the market's reaction to good news [11] - The US has dispatched a large number of special - operations aircraft and transport planes to the Caribbean [12] Energy and Chemical Futures - ANRPC predicted a 2.6% drop in global natural rubber production to 1.474 million tons in November 2025 and a 1.4% drop in consumption to 1.248 million tons [14] - US API crude oil inventory increased by 2.391 million barrels in the week ending December 19 [15] Metal Futures - The Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of high volatility in precious metals prices and urged risk prevention [17] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees, price limits, and margin standards for some contracts and restricted daily opening positions for polysilicon futures [18] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Tin Branch issued an initiative due to high costs for SMEs [19] - Gold jewelry prices in China rose, and the water - shell market no longer distinguished between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" [19] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Branch reported the November 2025 lithium industry situation [19] - Indonesia's environment ministry shut down 5 mines in West Sumatra [20] Black - Series Futures - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference planned to stabilize the real estate market in 2026 [22] - Global crude steel production in November 2025 was 140.1 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year decrease [22] - As of mid - December, steel social inventory decreased by 5.9% month - on - month [24] - China's 47 - port imported iron ore inventory increased by 3.4349 million tons [24] - Australian and Brazilian major port iron ore inventory rose slightly [24] Agricultural Product Futures - Shanghai will include pig income insurance in the municipal financial agricultural insurance premium subsidy program [26] - US soybean export net sales in the week ending December 11 were 2.396 million tons [26] - Indonesia planned to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% in 2026 [27] - The US agreed to exempt tariffs on some Indonesian products [28] - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to return to normal in 2026 [28] - Domestic soybean meal inventory increased, and the de - stocking trend may not continue [28] Section 3: Financial Markets Financial - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.07%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.27%, etc [30] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.11%, and some stocks had different performances [30] - Newly - issued equity funds' scale exceeded 400 billion shares this year [30] - Public fund institutions discussed 2026 investment opportunities, and the market may have dual - driven growth [32] - Analysts expected a "spring rally" in the stock market [32] - Blue Arrow Aerospace completed its IPO guidance for the Science and Technology Innovation Board [32] Industry - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference deployed 2026 real estate tasks [33] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration promoted solar thermal power generation development [34] - China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure increased by 52% year - on - year as of November [34] - The National Cultural Heritage Administration investigated the Nanjing Museum's cultural relic management issue [36] - New regulations for food live - streaming e - commerce are to be announced [36] - The Long March 12A rocket completed its maiden flight [36] - Beijing issued the first L3 - level highway autonomous driving vehicle license plates [36] - The "Guangdong cars enter Hong Kong" policy was implemented [36] Overseas - US President Trump hoped the next Fed chair would cut rates during good economic times [37] - Hassert, a potential Fed chair candidate, thought the US was behind in rate - cutting [39] - The US Q3 real GDP increased by 4.3% quarter - on - quarter [39] - The US December consumer confidence index declined [39] - The US government suspended some offshore wind power projects [39] - A radioactive water leak occurred during the decommissioning of a reactor in Japan [40] - The Italian Senate passed the 2026 budget with a controversial gold reserve clause [40] International Stock Markets - US major stock indexes rose for four consecutive days, and most Chinese concept stocks fell [41] - European major stock indexes had mixed results [43] - US retail investors' investment in the stock market increased significantly in 2025 [43] Commodities - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for some metal futures [44] - Domestic gold jewelry prices exceeded 1,400 yuan per gram [44] - The water - shell market adjusted its gold pricing system [44] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Tin Branch warned of irrational tin price increases [46] - US and Brent crude oil prices rose due to supply concerns [46] - London base metals mostly rose [46] Bonds - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct central treasury cash deposits on December 26 [47] - China's bond market strengthened, with some bond futures rising and yields falling [47] - US corporate bond issuance neared a record due to the "AI bond issuance wave" [47] - US Treasury yields had different changes [48][49] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the dollar index fell [50]