沪胶，区间震荡为主

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The Shanghai rubber futures market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to continue its range - bound consolidation in the short term [2][5]. 3) Summary by Related Points Supply - Side Situation - As of mid - December 2025, China's major natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan have entered the suspension season. In Yunnan, low temperatures are the main reason for the suspension, and raw material output is extremely scarce. In Hainan, the suspension process is slightly later and is now in the final stage [2]. - In 2025, from January to October, China's natural rubber production reached 72.28 million tons, a 7.88% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The domestic market has entered the inventory consumption stage, and future focus will shift to Southeast Asian producers [3]. Demand - Side Situation - In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 5.1% and 3.2%, and year - on - year increases of 2.8% and 3.4%. From January to November, production and sales reached 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles, with year - on - year increases of 11.9% and 11.4% [3][4]. - The heavy - truck market in 2025 recovered strongly. In November, sales were about 100,000 vehicles, a 46% increase compared to the same period last year. From January to November, cumulative sales reached 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [4]. - In 2025, the domestic tire market showed the characteristics of "stable total growth, structural optimization, and internal - external coordination". In November, the output of rubber tire casings was 101.828 million, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to November, the cumulative output was 1.103115 billion, a 0.6% year - on - year increase [4]. Inventory Situation - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao reached 515,200 tons, a weekly increase of 16,300 tons (3.28%). The inventory has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, reflecting the off - season demand characteristics [5].