中辉能化观点-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautionary Outlook: LPG, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, natural gas [1][3][6] - Bearish Rebound: Crude oil, PVC, asphalt [1][25][47] - Continued Bearish: L, PP [1] - Cautious Buying on Dips: PTA [28] - Bearish Consolidation: Glass, soda ash [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Short - term price rebound due to South American geopolitical uncertainties, but long - term pressure from supply glut in the off - season [1][8] - LPG: Weakening due to pressure on the cost side and a large increase in warehouse receipts [12] - L: Returning to a weak trend after the new device is put into production, with supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [16] - PP: Weak and volatile with cost support weakening and high inventory removal pressure [20] - PVC: High inventory restricts the rebound space, and attention should be paid to future maintenance efforts [24] - PTA: Good supply - demand pattern, with opportunities to buy on dips [28] - MEG: Weak supply - demand and inventory build - up expectations, with opportunities to short on rebounds [31] - Methanol: Caution when chasing long positions, with supply pressure and slightly weakened demand [34] - Urea: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, with a weak and volatile trend [39] - LNG: Abundant supply leads to downward pressure on gas prices [43] - Asphalt: Oscillating strongly due to increased South American geopolitical uncertainties [47] - Glass: Low - level oscillation with high inventory restricting the rebound space [51] - Soda Ash: Weak and volatile with supply increasing and demand decreasing [54] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.64%, Brent up 0.47%, and SC up 2.10% [7] - Basic Logic: Short - term boost from South American geopolitical uncertainties; long - term downward pressure from supply glut in the off - season and inventory build - up [8] - Fundamentals: Supply side, the US intercepted oil tankers in Venezuelan waters; demand side, IEA expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026; inventory side, US crude oil and product inventories showed mixed changes [9] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions, and pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [10] 3.2 LPG - Market Performance: On December 23, the PG main contract closed at 4055 yuan/ton, down 1.10% [13] - Basic Logic: Anchored to the cost - side crude oil, with supply increasing and inventory decreasing; warehouse receipts increased [14] - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to hold short positions, and pay attention to the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [15] 3.3 L - Market Performance: L05 basis was - 216 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 11265 lots [18] - Basic Logic: New device put into production, with supply - demand imbalance, low profit, and high inventory removal pressure [19] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially stop losses on short positions in the short - term; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term; hold short positions on the LP05 spread [19] 3.4 PP - Market Performance: PP05 basis was - 46 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 10772 lots [22] - Basic Logic: Cost support weakened, with high inventory removal pressure and low PDH profit [23] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially stop losses on short positions in the short - term; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term; short the MTO05 [23] 3.5 PVC - Market Performance: V05 basis was - 318 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 108044 lots [26] - Basic Logic: High inventory restricts the rebound space, with supply - demand in the off - season and some devices reducing loads [27] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially stop profits on long positions; wait to buy on pull - backs in the long - term; industrial customers hedge at high prices [27] 3.6 PTA - Market Performance: TA05 price was 4674 yuan/ton [28] - Basic Logic: Processing fees improved, with supply decreasing due to device maintenance and demand expected to weaken; inventory pressure is not large in the short - term but there is a build - up expectation in January [29] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to opportunities to buy TA05 on dips, and focus on the range of TA [5040 - 5150] [30] 3.7 MEG - Market Performance: EG05 price was 3619 yuan/ton [31] - Basic Logic: Domestic production load increased, overseas devices expected to reduce loads, demand expected to weaken, and inventory build - up expected in December [32] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds, and focus on the range of EG05 [3590 - 3680] [33] 3.8 Methanol - Market Performance: Taicang spot price weakened slightly, with negative basis strengthening [36] - Basic Logic: Port inventory decreased, social inventory increased; supply pressure remained, and demand weakened slightly [36] - Strategy Recommendation: Do not chase long positions, and pay attention to opportunities to buy methanol 05 on dips [38] 3.9 Urea - Market Performance: U05 price was 1697 yuan/ton [39] - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure expected to increase, demand expected to weaken, inventory at a relatively high level, and cost support weak [40] - Strategy Recommendation: Expected to be weak and volatile, pay attention to opportunities to buy U05 on dips, and focus on the range of UR05 [1680 - 1710] [42] 3.10 LNG - Market Performance: On December 22, the NG main contract closed at 3.965 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.48% [45] - Basic Logic: Demand support decreased due to mild weather, supply was abundant, and gas prices were under pressure [46] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.748 - 4.134] [46] 3.11 Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 23, the BU main contract closed at 2909 yuan/ton, up 2.96% [48] - Basic Logic: Anchored to the cost - side crude oil, with supply - demand imbalance and price rebound due to South American geopolitical uncertainties [49] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially stop losses on short positions, and pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50] 3.12 Glass - Market Performance: FG05 basis was - 11 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 244 lots [52] - Basic Logic: High inventory restricts the rebound space, with weak demand and negative profit for three processes [53] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially stop losses on short positions in the short - term; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term, and focus on the range of FG [1000 - 1050] [53] 3.13 Soda Ash - Market Performance: SA05 basis was - 35 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 4523 lots [56] - Basic Logic: Supply increased and demand decreased, with high inventory and weak demand support [57] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially stop losses on short positions; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term, and focus on the range of SA [1140 - 1190] [57]