中辉农产品观点-20251224

1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Beans and Meals: The report gives a "Shockingly Bearish" rating for both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [1]. - Oils: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "Stopping Decline and Rebounding" [1]. - Cotton: The rating for cotton is "Shockingly Bullish" [1]. - Jujubes: Jujubes are rated as "Weakly Running" [1]. - Pigs: The short - term rating for pigs is "Short - term Rebound" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Although the latest domestic soybean meal inventory has improved on a week - on - week basis, it is still high year - on - year. The supply in December is expected to be sufficient, but the import forecast for the first quarter is expected to decrease year - on - year. Coupled with the increase in the cost of imported US soybeans, the spot price is resistant to decline. It is expected to maintain a shockingly weak trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the export situation of US soybeans and the weather in South America [1][6]. - Rapeseed Meal: Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but the port inventory is still high year - on - year, and the warehouse receipt pressure has been reduced. However, global bumper harvests, diversified imports, and the off - season for consumption weaken the bullish expectations. In the short term, it mainly follows the trend of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][9]. - Palm Oil: Indonesia has proposed to implement B50 in the second half of 2026 again. The export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of this month have improved significantly compared with the previous period, and the production reduction season is coming, which stimulates the market's bullish sentiment. However, there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation in December. It should be treated as a short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to position and operation rhythm. In the short - term operation, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [1][11]. - Soybean Oil: The domestic soybean oil inventory has decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis but is still higher than the five - year average. The EPA said that the biodiesel target is expected to be announced in January at the earliest, which suppresses the market's bullish sentiment. The domestic soybean reserve auction has started, and the supply will increase marginally in the first quarter. Coupled with the improved weather in South America, the US soybean oil lacks bullish drivers. It should be treated as a short - term rebound. Attention should be paid to the weather in South America, the progress of US biodiesel policies, and the boost from the palm oil side [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. The port inventory has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. However, diversified imports such as Australian and Russian rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the commercialization expectation of Australian rapeseed imports, global rapeseed and Canadian rapeseed bumper harvests, and the positive attitude of Canada towards China - Canada relations increase the uncertainty of the future market. It should be treated as a short - term rebound. Attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1]. - Cotton: The US cotton harvest is nearing the end, and Brazilian cotton has started the new - season planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. In China, most of the new cotton has been inspected, and the sales progress is still relatively fast, which supports the market. However, in the near term, attention should be paid to the short - term correction risk of further weakening downstream demand, and the change in the inventory accumulation speed of commercial inventories should be monitored. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips and the long - term moderate recovery opportunity under the supply - side narrative [1][15]. - Jujubes: At the end of the acquisition, the spot price has stopped falling due to a small increase. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the market fluctuation will increase. High inventory still exerts obvious pressure on the jujube price rebound. In the context of a loose supply - demand pattern, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. Most of the premium caused by the hype of a large - scale reduction in new - season jujube production since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of the market has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. In the cooling context, attention can be paid to the short - term rebound opportunity at the bottom [1][17]. - Pigs: Recently, the spot price of pigs has declined, and the winter solstice stocking market has cooled down. Although the demand indicators such as fresh sales and slaughter have improved stage by stage, the increase in supply is likely to exceed the increase in demand, so the short - term upward driving force of pig prices is limited. Coupled with the late Spring Festival this year and the increase in the number of second - fattened pigs entering the market, even if the winter solstice expectation fails, the inventory in December is difficult to be effectively cleared, and the price will still be under pressure in January. For contracts, the 01 contract is still suppressed by the delivery logic, and attention should be paid to the downward risk; for the 03 contract, in the case of no unexpected spread of the epidemic, attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds; for the 09 and 11 contracts, due to the divergence between the reduction expectation and capacity reduction, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices for the time being [1][21]. 3. Summaries According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Market Data: The latest futures price of soybean meal (main contract daily closing) is 2745 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.15%. The national average spot price is 3144 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.14 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.04%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 107.8807 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.90 yuan [4]. - Inventory Data: As of December 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 865.6 million tons, a decrease of 50.60 million tons compared with last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills is 722.36 million tons, a decrease of 17.12 million tons compared with last week, a decrease rate of 2.32%, and an increase of 143.79 million tons compared with last year, an increase rate of 24.85%. The soybean meal inventory is 113.71 million tons, an increase of 4.02 million tons compared with last week, an increase rate of 3.66%, and an increase of 55.43 million tons compared with last year, an increase rate of 95.11% [5]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Market Data: The latest futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract daily closing) is 2349 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 12 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.51%. The national average spot price is 2507.37 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 9.47 yuan and a daily decrease rate of - 0.38%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 607.394 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16.29 yuan [7]. - Inventory Data: As of December 19, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory is 0 million tons, the same as last week; the rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons compared with last week; the unexecuted contract is 0 million tons, the same as last week [9]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Market Data: The latest futures price of palm oil (main contract daily closing) is 8486 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 72 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.86%. The national average price is 8525 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 155 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.85%. The national daily trading volume is 100, a decrease of 1100 compared with the previous day. The import cost is 8732 yuan/ton, an increase of 183 yuan compared with the previous day [10]. - Inventory Data: As of December 19, 2025 (week 51), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 70 million tons, an increase of 4.73 million tons compared with last week, an increase rate of 7.25%, and an increase of 16.16 million tons compared with last year, an increase rate of 30.01% [11]. 3.4 Cotton - Market Data: The latest futures price of the cotton main contract (CF2605) is 14140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.50%. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price is 15213 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 59 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.39%. The spinning profit of textile enterprises is - 1428.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan compared with the previous day [12]. - Inventory and Production Data: The national cotton commercial inventory is 504.73 million tons, an increase of 26 million tons compared with the previous value. The new - season cotton production in China is estimated to be 768 million tons, an increase of 26 million tons compared with the previous estimate. The import volume of cotton in November is 30 million tons, an increase of about 7.3 million tons compared with the previous month, and 1.35 million tons higher than the same period [14]. 3.5 Jujubes - Market Data: The acquisition in some jujube - producing areas has ended, and the prices in the producing areas are weakening. The physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week is 16108 tons, an increase of 318 tons compared with the previous week, gradually reaching the peak, and still 4148 tons higher than the same period [16]. 3.6 Pigs - Market Data: The latest futures price of the main pig contract (lh2603) is 11415 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.62%. The national average pig slaughter price is 11500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.61%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory is 3856.32 million heads, an increase of 11.70 million heads compared with the previous month, an increase rate of 0.30%. The national sample enterprise pig slaughter volume is 1188 million heads, a decrease of 8.53 million heads compared with the previous month, a decrease rate of - 0.71% [19]. - Supply and Demand and Profit: In the short term, the supply pressure is large, the demand after the winter solstice stocking has declined, and the industry loss pattern has continued to deepen slightly, with losses for 14 weeks. There has been some second - fattening behavior recently, which provides a short - term "bottom - support" for inventory clearance [20].