玉米和淀粉年报

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global corn supply pressure will weaken in the 26/27 season, and the price center of gravity will rise. The planting area of US corn is expected to decline, and the new - season yield may be lower. Brazilian corn production is stable, and exports are good. - In the domestic market, the corn supply in the 25/26 season is still tight, and the planting cost will rise in the 26/27 season. Feed demand will decline slightly, but the use of corn will remain high. Deep - processing profits will decline. The inventory of north - south ports will continue to rise. - In the future, the price of US corn will be higher than that of the previous year. Domestic corn prices will fall before the end of March due to the peak of farmers selling grain, but will rise in the medium - to - long term. The price of corn starch will be relatively strong, and the price difference between corn starch and corn may expand. [5][15][90] Summary by Directory 1. Preface and Overview - Market Review: In the 25/26 season, US corn was in bottom - range oscillation due to record - high production. Domestic corn prices rose in the first half of the year due to reduced imports and substitutes, fell in July considering new - season planting cost reduction and increased production, and rose counter - seasonally after mid - October due to low carry - over inventory and farmers' reluctance to sell. Corn starch was relatively weak, and the profit was lower than last year. [4] - Market Outlook: Internationally, the supply pressure of US corn will weaken in the 25/26 season, and the new - season price center of gravity in 26/27 will be higher. Domestically, the supply of corn after the Spring Festival is still tight, but the spot price will fall before the end of March due to farmers selling grain. The price of corn starch is expected to improve, and the price difference between corn starch and corn will likely expand. [5] - Strategy Recommendation: - Unilateral: Go long on the US corn 05 contract lightly around 430 cents per bushel, and go long on the 07 corn contract when the price is between 2220 - 2350. - Arbitrage: Expand the price difference between 05 corn and starch when it is between 280 - 370. - Options: Sell the corn put option (c2605 - P - 2220) when the market falls to a low point. [7] 2. Market Regression and International Corn Fundamentals - Domestic and International Corn Market Review: In 2025, the domestic corn spot market had three stages: continuous rise from January to June, decline from July to mid - October, and counter - seasonal rise from mid - October to mid - December. The futures market had small fluctuations, and the basis operation was difficult in the second half of the year. [8][13] - Global Corn Supply Pressure Weakens, Center of Gravity Will Rise: The 25/26 season had a loose corn supply due to increased yields in China and the US. However, in the 26/27 season, the uncertainty of weather may lead to a decrease in yield, and the global grain price center of gravity will rise. [15] - US Corn Old - Crop Supply Is Loose, New - Season Yield Is Expected to Decline: In the 25/26 season, the area and yield of US corn reached record highs, but the planting was still at a loss. The planting area in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease, and the yield may be lower than the previous year. The price center of gravity of US corn will be higher, and the 12 - contract has strong support at 400 cents per bushel. [22] - Brazilian Corn Production Is Stable, Exports Are Good: Brazilian corn production has been stable at around 130 million tons in recent years, and exports are also stable. As of December 13, the sowing rate of the first - crop corn was 77.5%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume was 35.75 million tons. Brazilian corn is still the main import source when the domestic corn supply is tight. [28] 3. Domestic Corn Fundamental Analysis - 25/26 Season Corn Supply Is Still Tight, 26/27 Season Planting Cost Rises: In the 25/26 season, the national corn production increased, but the carry - over inventory was low, and the supply was still tight. The import of corn and grains decreased significantly. In the 26/27 season, the new - season corn planting cost is expected to rise. [33][34] - Feed Demand Declines Slightly, Corn Usage Remains High: Due to losses in the breeding industry and high inventory, the feed demand will decline slightly after the year, but the demand for corn may still increase due to the low - level of substitute grains. The current feed demand still shows a slight increase, but the breeding industry is expected to reduce inventory in 2026. [39] - Corn Is at a High Level, Deep - Processing Profits Will Decline: In 2025, the deep - processing industry was in overall loss. In the first quarter of 2026, the operating rate is expected to decline, and the demand for corn will decrease slightly. The demand for corn starch may improve, but the deep - processing profit is lower than in previous years. The operating rate of the alcohol industry is also expected to decline. [59][71] - North - South Port Inventory Will Continue to Rise: Due to low carry - over inventory, low inventory in intermediate channels and downstream, and farmers' reluctance to sell, the north - south port corn inventory was at a historical low. Before the end of March, the inventory will continue to rise due to the peak of farmers selling grain. [77] - Corn and Starch Trading Logic: The focus of the market is on the selling rhythm of farmers before the end of March. After the peak of farmers selling grain, the medium - to - long - term corn price will rise. The price of corn starch will be relatively strong, and the price difference between corn starch and corn may expand. [82] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Corn: The price of US corn in the 26/27 season will be higher than in the previous year. The domestic corn spot price will fall before the end of March and then rise. The price of North Port closing price is expected to fluctuate between 2200 - 2400, and the 07 futures contract will be relatively strong, fluctuating between 2220 - 2380. [90] - Starch: Corn starch will fluctuate narrowly with corn in the first quarter of 2026. After the second quarter, it will be relatively strong, and the price difference between corn starch and corn will expand. The 05 starch contract will rise in oscillation, and the price difference between 05 corn and starch is expected to fluctuate between 280 - 370. - Trading Strategy: - Unilateral: Go long on the US corn 05 contract lightly around 430 cents per bushel. Go long on the 07 corn contract when the price is between 2220 - 2350. - Arbitrage: The price difference between 05 corn and starch fluctuates between 280 - 370. - Options: Sell the c2605 - P - 2200 option after the market falls. [91][92][94]