蛋白数据日报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of US soybean oil drives the rebound of US soybeans, but the performance of US soybeans is still expected to be under pressure. With favorable weather in South America and the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans, there will be selling pressure later. Recently, the futures market fluctuates following reserve - related rumors, and the 005 contract is expected to remain relatively weak in the later period. Attention should be paid to domestic customs policies and reserve auctions [7]. - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On December 23, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 395, down 4; in Rizhao it was 335, down 4; in Tianjin it was 355, down 4. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 355, down 4 [4]. - The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 124, down 10; the M1 - 5 was 302, down 9 [4]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 396, down 8; the price difference between the main contracts was 533 [5]. Supply Situation - According to CONAB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season will reach 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 90.3%. As of December 3, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 44.7%. Short - term weather is favorable. There are concerns about the supply of soybeans and soybean meal in the first quarter of next year in China due to rumored customs delays. Domestic imported soybeans have started to be auctioned with high premium [6]. Demand Situation - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short - term, supporting feed demand. However, breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the far - month supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal, and the提货 performance is good [6][7]. Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and the inventory of soybean meal is being depleted slowly. The pressure of spot supply is still large. It is expected that the inventory will be depleted more quickly from December to January. This week, the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [7].