光大期货金融期货日报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Stock Index Futures: The stock market showed a pattern of rising and then falling on Tuesday, with the three major indexes slightly up. The stock index futures market has been oscillating around the lower edge of the central position since October, with limited differentiation between large - and small - cap indexes and frequent sector rotations. Short - term policy influence on the market is expected to increase after the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. The important meetings indicate a 5% GDP growth target for next year, and policy efforts will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity". The combination of fiscal and monetary policies will continue, and the scale may increase slightly compared to this year. Overseas, the Fed's rate cut and restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan have led to oscillations in US tech stocks, and the Bank of Japan's upcoming interest - rate meeting may affect carry - trade funds. The impact of important meetings on the stock index is long - term, and in the short term, it will mainly oscillate [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but rate - cut operations will be cautious. Although the central bank has shown an attitude of stabilizing the capital market, the overall economy remains resilient, prices are warming up, and the oscillating pattern of the bond market is difficult to change [1][2]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Research Views - Stock Index Futures: The stock market had a volatile performance on Tuesday, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume was 1.92 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.41%. The stock index futures market has been oscillating around the lower edge of the central position since October. Policy influence is expected to increase, and the GDP growth target for next year is expected to be 5%. Overseas factors, such as the Fed's rate cut and the Bank of Japan's upcoming meeting, also have an impact. The short - term view is that the stock index will oscillate [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures closed with gains on the previous trading day. The central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on December 23, with a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. The monetary policy in 2026 will be moderately loose, but rate - cut operations will be cautious. The short - term capital market is loose, but the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [1][2]. Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On December 23, 2025, IH rose 7.2 points (0.24%) to 3,025.6, IF rose 6.6 points (0.14%) to 4,571.4, IC rose 10.0 points (0.14%) to 7,133.2, and IM fell 6.2 points (- 0.09%) to 7,197.4 compared to December 22 [4]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai 50 Index rose 7.3 points (0.24%) to 3,027.5, the CSI 300 Index rose 9.1 points (0.20%) to 4,620.7, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.1 points (0.02%) to 7,256.8, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 15.9 points (- 0.22%) to 7,392.4 on December 23, 2025, compared to December 22 [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On December 23, 2025, TS rose 0.062 points (0.06%) to 102.53, TF rose 0.165 points (0.16%) to 106.03, T rose 0.24 points (0.22%) to 108.22, and TL rose 0.85 points (0.76%) to 112.83 compared to December 22 [4]. - Treasury Bond Yields: On December 23, 2025, the yield of the 2 - year treasury bond fell 3.03 to 1.3401, the 5 - year treasury bond yield fell 2.06 to 1.5875, the 10 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.69 to 1.8355, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield fell 2.3 to 2.2200 compared to December 22 [4]. Market News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent supports re - examining the Fed's 2% inflation target after inflation has continuously declined to the target level. He suggests discussing adjusting the inflation target to a range such as 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3%. However, he warns that adjusting the target during high inflation may give a negative impression [5]. Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, showing their price changes over time [6][7][8][9][10][11]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Charts include the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][17][18][19]. - Exchange Rates: Charts show the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward US dollar - RMB exchange rates, forward euro - RMB exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, British pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [21][22][24][26][28][30].