美国三季度GDP点评：剔除噪音后依然良好

Economic Performance - The US Q3 2025 GDP growth rate was reported at 4.3%, significantly exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%[2] - Year-on-year GDP growth was 2.3%, higher than the previous 2.1% and the historical average of 2.2% since 2000[2] Consumption and Investment - Private consumption's contribution to GDP increased from 1.7% to 2.4%, with notable rebounds in non-durable goods and services[3] - Private investment's contribution improved from -2.7% to 0%, while inventory changes shifted from -3.4% to -0.2%[3] Adjusted GDP Metrics - After removing noise from net exports, inventory changes, and government spending, the adjusted GDP growth rate for Q3 was 2.6%, slightly above Q2's 2.5% and the average of 2.3% since 2022[3] Market Reactions - Following the GDP announcement, major indices showed mixed results: S&P 500 up 0.5%, Nasdaq up 0.6%, and Dow Jones up 0.2%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 0.2 basis points to 4.16%, while the dollar index fell by 0.4% to 97.9[4] Interest Rate Expectations - The implied probability of a rate cut in January decreased from 20% to 13%, and the expected number of rate cuts in 2026 dropped from 2.3 to 2.1[4] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a weak recovery in the US economy, with potential for significant fluctuations in early 2026 due to upcoming economic data and political events[5]