光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日）-20251224

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Urea: On Tuesday, the urea futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,721 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.24%. The spot market transactions improved, and the sales-to-production ratio in most mainstream regions increased to over 100%. However, the prices in some mainstream regions began to decline slightly. Fundamentally, the urea supply continued to decrease, with the daily output on the previous day at 189,800 tons, a daily decrease of 25,000 tons. The market focus is on the Indian tender and changes in China's export policy. Before new positive factors are realized, the futures price will mainly show a firm and fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to factors such as the Indian tender results, export expectations, supply levels, spot trading atmosphere, overall commodity trends, and this week's urea inventory data [1]. - Soda Ash: On Tuesday, the soda ash futures price fluctuated widely. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,175 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.6%. The spot market quotes were mostly stable. Fundamentally, the industry's maintenance and resumption of production alternated, but the short - term maintenance losses exceeded the resumption of production output, and the supply level continued to decline. The demand follow - up was still poor. There is no new driving force in the supply - demand relationship of soda ash, and the futures price was slightly boosted by the overall rebound of the commodity market. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - wide - fluctuation mindset and pay attention to factors such as the overall trend of the commodity market, soda ash start - up and new production capacity production rhythm, and downstream capacity changes [1]. - Glass: On Tuesday, the glass futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,028 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 0.29%. The spot price was still weak. There was no significant change in the glass production line recently, and the daily melting volume of the industry remained at 155,000 tons. The demand follow - up could be maintained, but the sustainability of spot transactions needs to be tracked. The supply - demand and internal - external factors of glass are in a game stage. The external macro - sentiment and the rebound of the commodity market provide bottom support, but the self - driving force is insufficient. The futures price will temporarily continue the bottom - range - fluctuation trend. Attention should be paid to macro and policy changes, the overall trend of the commodity market, glass production line changes, and the spot trading atmosphere [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On December 23, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 10,532, a decrease of 349 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 379 [4]. - On December 23, the daily output of the urea industry was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 13,800 tons from the same period last year. The start - up rate on this day was 78.49%, a recovery of 0.62 percentage points from 77.87% in the same period last year [4]. - On December 23, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions of China were as follows: Shandong 1,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Henan 1,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Hebei 1,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu 1,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi 1,560 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On December 23, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 4,523, a decrease of 209 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 978. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 217, a decrease of 1 from the previous trading day [6]. - On December 23, the spot prices of soda ash were as follows: In North China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Central China, light soda ash was 1,180 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in South China, light soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light soda ash was 930 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 930 yuan/ton [6]. - On December 23, the start - up rate of the soda ash industry was 79.62%, down from 80.99% on the previous working day [7]. - On December 23, the average price of the float glass market was 1,080 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The industry's daily output was 155,100 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the closing prices of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, their basis, trading volume and open interest of the main contracts, price spreads between different contracts, spot price trends, and the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [9][10][11][12][13][15][17][18][19][20]. Group 5: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin: Research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar industry research. He has participated in major projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the writing of series books by the China Futures Association. He has won many awards, including "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" and "Senior Senior Analyst of Sugar at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [22]. - Zhang Linglu: An analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has participated in large - scale projects and topics of the China Futures Association and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many awards [22]. - Sun Chengzhen: An analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He has participated in relevant topic writing of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many awards [22].