关注海外能否重新进入去库周期

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View The report focuses on whether overseas markets can re - enter the destocking cycle. Despite the closure of the export window due to overseas centralized delivery, the fundamentals remain bullish, with low zinc valuation and optimistic consumption expectations [4]. Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$33.43/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 100 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,020 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 15 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,990 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 23, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,030 yuan/ton and closed at 23,090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 133,845 lots, and the open interest was 93,107 lots. The highest price was 23,100 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,940 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of December 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 124,500 tons, up 0.23 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 98,975 tons, down 275 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Overseas inventory has slightly declined. Attention should be paid to whether actual consumption can support overseas markets to re - enter the destocking cycle after centralized delivery. In the spot market, downstream buyers purchase on demand, social inventory has stopped falling, and spot premiums are performing well. - The import window for zinc ore has opened, and domestic mine TC has stopped falling. After smelters' active winter storage, the enthusiasm for zinc ore procurement has decreased. - The comprehensive smelting loss of smelters has widened, and maintenance in December has increased, reducing supply pressure. - The consumption end remains strong. Although the export window has closed, the fundamentals are still bullish, zinc valuation is low, and consumption expectations are optimistic [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]