新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-24）-20251224

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coking coal and coke: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - Rebar and hot - rolled coils: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - Glass: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - Soda ash: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - Logs: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - Pulp: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - Offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - Meals: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - PX: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - PTA: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - MEG: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - PR and PF: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]