生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: China's sugar supply is abundant and prices are low. In November, sugar imports decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year, which temporarily boosted domestic sugar prices. However, India's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year and it is actively seeking exports. Domestic sugar mills' start - up has increased, with an oversupply in the international market and an increasing domestic supply, so the bearish drivers continue [4]. - Pulp: Pulp's spot and futures price fluctuations have narrowed recently, and the basis is not high. The previous price increase was due to the expected reduction in bleached softwood pulp supply caused by Lion brand's production cut and the weakening of delivery pressure after the gradual reduction of BCTMP warehouse receipts and the increase in new warehouse receipt costs. Recently, the supply - side bullish factors have weakened. In reality, the global bleached softwood pulp is not in short supply, and inventories in overseas producers, domestic ports, and European ports are not low. The demand for pulp in China is stable, and the improvement in Europe and the US is not obvious. The prices of domestic finished paper have not generally increased, and paper mills' profits are low, so the short - term ability to accept high - priced pulp may be weak. It is expected that next year, the price center will gradually rise under the influence of factors such as the slowdown in hardwood pulp production growth, the possible recovery of demand in Europe and the US, and the expected reduction in new warehouse receipts and bleached softwood pulp supply. For now, without further realization of supply - reduction expectations or obvious follow - up price increases in finished paper, it may be difficult to form a trend - upward market driven by pure expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to supply - side news, with prices moving in a range [4]. - Double - offset paper: The spot price of double - offset paper has not fluctuated much since October. The paper mill's operating rate has continued to rise, and the delivery of publication orders has increased the paper mill's production enthusiasm, with inventory also increasing and reaching a high this year. With sufficient production capacity, a simple seasonal improvement in demand is difficult to bring about an obvious improvement in supply and demand, and policy adjustment of supply is still needed. Recently, the price of raw material wood pulp has fluctuated greatly, and the double - offset paper futures price has fluctuated accordingly. With the spot price stable, the futures price may fluctuate with the basis, and there is support on the downside recently [5]. - Cotton: In the overseas market, there is little change, with expectations of continued inventory accumulation for global and US cotton and weak consumption expectations, and futures prices continue to operate at a low level. In the domestic market, the commercial inventory of cotton has increased significantly month - on - month, reflecting the gradual release of the pressure of the new season's listing. The short - term supply is abundant, while the year - on - year increase is not obvious, reflecting limited long - term pressure. Currently, the market is still a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Recently, the significant increase in the price of short - fiber substitutes has provided associated support, and short - term futures prices may continue to oscillate strongly [7]. - Apples: Fundamentally, the apple 05 contract is in a situation with both upward pressure and downward support. The pressure mainly comes from the low acceptance of high prices during the off - season of consumption, while the support mainly comes from the cost of warehouse receipts. With low inventory and a poor high - quality fruit rate, the cost of warehouse receipts is supported. After the annual supply is realized, the driving force for continuous price increases decreases, and the market focus shifts to delivery games and consumption expectations. Recently, market concerns about consumption have increased, and futures prices have shown a high - level decline. However, the cost of warehouse receipts still limits the continuous decline space of futures prices, and overall, a high - level range is expected [8]. - Jujubes: On Tuesday, jujube futures prices decreased with increasing positions, and funds gradually completed the transfer to the 2605 contract. The phased decline of the agricultural product index slowed down. Jujube warehouse receipts were successively registered and increased to 1092 lots, a week - on - week increase of 209 lots and a year - on - year increase of 612 lots. Recently, jujube futures prices failed to rebound after a low - position reduction and oscillation, and short - sellers concentrated on taking profits and left the market. Near - month futures prices oscillated at a low level, and the basis between futures and spot prices gradually returned. Since the fourth quarter, the jujube 2601 contract has opened and closed lower, and after a continuous decline, it oscillated in a narrow range. The jujube index increased positions and broke through the support level and declined. Currently, the acquisition of jujubes in Xinjiang is gradually coming to an end, and the market's expectation of production reduction has cooled down. After the jujube 2601 contract failed to break through, it turned to a sharp decline, and the premium of futures over spot warehouse receipts quickly converged. Currently, the removal speed of jujube spot inventory has slowed down, new jujubes have been harvested, and dried - fruit consumption is gradually transitioning to the seasonal peak. In the sales area market, the price of high - quality goods is stable, while the price of ordinary goods is weak. This week, the average price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei is about 10.26 yuan/kg, and that of first - grade jujubes is 9.40 yuan/kg. The standard product is equivalent to about 9140 yuan/ton on the futures market, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The basis of the 2601 contract is about 200, and the premium of the 01 contract futures price over the spot has returned. Attention should be paid to the price trend of new jujubes [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy Recommendations: For the apple 2605 contract, use an interval trading strategy. The new - season production, high - quality fruit rate, and peak value have decreased year - on - year, providing support, but the lack of consumption growth drivers also increases the pressure. Futures prices may fluctuate in a high - level range, with a support interval of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure interval of 9700 - 9800. For the jujube 2605 contract, consider short - term buying at low prices. The expectation of production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, with a support interval of 9000 - 9300 and a pressure interval of 9500 - 9800 [18]. - Soft Commodity Futures Strategy Recommendations: For the sugar 2605 contract, temporarily wait and see. Indian sugar mills' start - up has increased, and domestic new sugar has been listed, with an increasing supply. The significant reduction in imported sugar has alleviated the supply pressure to some extent. The support interval is 5000 - 5030, and the pressure interval is 5200 - 5230. For the pulp 2605 contract, take a long - biased interval strategy. The futures price has risen above the price of the main spot delivery product, increasing the potential delivery pressure. With limited improvement in the fundamentals, pulp prices may correct, but there is support on the downside. The support interval is 5300 - 5400, and the pressure interval is 5600 - 5800. For the double - offset paper 2605 contract, temporarily wait and see. Raw material price fluctuations affect double - offset paper prices from the cost side, but with the spot price stable, the double - offset paper futures price may maintain an interval operation. The support interval is 3900 - 4000, and the pressure interval is 4200 - 4300. For the cotton 2605 contract, hold long positions cautiously. The overseas market is operating at a low level, and the domestic market has positive expectations. Short - term futures prices may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range. The support interval is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure interval is 14400 - 14500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 17, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 7.5298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 55,700 tons, and the sales were slower than the same period last year. As of December 18, 2025, the cold - storage inventory was 7.127 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 920,600 tons. In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock was stable, with small and medium - sized fruits and a small amount of general - quality goods being the main trading items, and large - sized fruits having less trading volume. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price was stable, and traders mainly packed their own goods for the market. In the sales area, the arrival volume was sufficient, the sales were smooth, and the price was stable [19][20]. - Jujube Market: As of last week's agricultural product research data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 16,108 tons, a week - on - week increase of 318 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 34.68%. The procurement in Xinjiang is entering the final stage, with some merchants still actively looking for suitable goods in the production area, and some of the purchased goods are temporarily stored in dry warehouses in Xinjiang, waiting for shipment [21]. - Sugar Market: In November 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder totaled 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons, remaining at a medium level in the same period of the past five years. From January to November 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 1.1191 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0671 million tons, with a significant decrease. As of November 30 in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 229,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 218,700 tons. As of December 20 in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 7.8122 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3675 million tons, a decrease of 14.9%. The sugar - cane sugar content was 11.36%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.12%. The sugar - production rate was 8.183%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.062%. The sugar - production volume was 639,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 106,200 tons, a decrease of 14.25%. As of now, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 33 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, an increase of 3 compared with the same period last year, with an estimated sugar - cane crushing capacity of 121,700 tons per day, an increase of 11,100 tons per day compared with the same period last year. In Guangxi, 71 sugar mills have started production, a decrease of 3 compared with the same period last year, with a designed sugar - cane crushing capacity of 571,500 tons per day, a decrease of 11,000 tons per day compared with the same period last year [24]. - Pulp Market: In November 2025, the total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%, with a cumulative import volume of 32.925 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. In November 2025, the total export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp was 1.6206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.0%, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.1%. Among them, the volume exported to China was 636,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 22.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [26]. - Double - offset Paper Market: The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the month - on - month increase this week narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. Social demand is still weak, and at the end of the year, dealers are cautious about purchasing. With the expectation of publication order delivery, the operating rate of some paper enterprises has increased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure has increased. The operating load rate of the double - offset paper industry is 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the month - on - month increase this week expanded by 0.23 percentage points [27]. - Cotton Market: In November 2025, the export volume of cotton yarn was 25,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.09%. The export amount was 96 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.38%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of cotton yarn was 30.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.08%. The cumulative export amount was 1.164 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.01%. In November 2025, China's cotton - yarn import volume was 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 tons, an increase of about 25%, and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 7.14%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume of cotton yarn was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. As of December 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,800 tons and an increase of 44,300 tons compared with the end of last month. In November, Pakistan imported 44,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of 41.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 61.9%, and there was no new export in that month [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9230, with a daily increase of 81 and a daily increase rate of 0.89%. The closing price of the jujube 2605 contract was 8750, with a daily decrease of 70 and a daily decrease rate of 0.79%. The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5155, with a daily increase of 29 and a daily increase rate of 0.57%. The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5620, with a daily decrease of 2 and a daily decrease rate of 0.04%. The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14140, with a daily increase of 70 and a daily increase rate of 0.50% [30]. - Spot Market Review: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan/jin. The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan/kg. The spot price of sugar was 5270 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The spot price of pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan/ton. The spot price of double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 450 yuan/ton. The spot price of cotton was 15213 yuan/ton, a