看涨热情不减，碳酸锂突破12万大关

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current price of lithium carbonate is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. There is a phenomenon of divergence between futures and spot markets, and the short - term increase is too large, so the risk of a callback should be vigilant [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 23, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 113,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,360 yuan/ton, with a 5.67% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 731,003 lots, and the open interest was 671,573 lots, up from 668,829 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 18,060 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 16,651 lots, a change of 240 lots from the previous day [2] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 96,400 - 102,600 yuan/ton, a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 95,100 - 98,600 yuan/ton, also a change of 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,420 US dollars/ton, a change of 35 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - The expectation of the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo continues to ferment. The SMM weekly inventory reduction is less than expected but still supports the strong trend. The total spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventory is 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The overall inventory reduction in December is expected to continue, but the reduction has slowed down [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises. There are no strategies for inter - period and cross - variety operations [3]