PTA/PX维持强势，关注资金动态

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish. PTA and PX 5 - 9 calendar spread is recommended for long position in the 5 - month contract and short position in the 9 - month contract [6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and there is a risk of price retracement when capital reduces positions. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load and capital trends [6] - In the medium - long term, as the period of concentrated PTA capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Data - With the strong rise of PTA, filament factories' losses have intensified. Three mainstream filament manufacturers will implement an additional 10% production cut for POY this Wednesday, and continue the previous 15% production cut for FDY, with supervision and inspection arrangements [2] Market Analysis Cost Side - Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil has rebounded. Venezuela has become the short - term market focus. However, in Q1 next year, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices. Recently, due to overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year, liquidity may disrupt the phased market [3] PX - The PXN was $352/ton two trading days ago (a month - on - month increase of $17/ton). PX units are operating smoothly. With good expectations for the first half of next year, PXN has risen significantly. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, PX operating rates can be effectively maintained even if some refineries' reforming units have operating fluctuations. Recently, the PX calendar spread has strengthened significantly supported by the delivery logic. There will be many PX maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year, and the long - term outlook is good. Meanwhile, with the strong polyester operating rate, PXN has support. In terms of blending for gasoline, the gasoline crack spread has not improved significantly, but the US has started to stockpile aromatics. Attention should be paid to capital trends and changes in downstream polyester load [3] TA - The spot basis of the TA主力 contract is -17 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 146 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the processing fee of the主力 contract on the futures market is 305 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton). Recently, downstream raw material inventories have dropped to a low level, and the replenishment demand of polyester factories at low prices has increased significantly, driving the spot market basis to gradually strengthen. There are many near - term maintenance plans, and India's cancellation of BIS regulations has boosted PTA export demand. Supported by polyester load, the balance sheet will show inventory reduction in December, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January, which is better than previously expected. In the long run, as the period of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [4] Demand - The polyester operating rate is 91.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%). Recently, the weaving load has declined rapidly. Since the end of November, domestic orders have weakened rapidly, and grey fabric inventories have started to accumulate rapidly. Although samples for spring - summer orders next year or foreign trade orders have been made one after another, large - scale orders have not been placed yet. It is expected that the operating rate will decline more rapidly from late December. Attention should be paid to the placement of subsequent foreign trade orders. In terms of polyester, the polyester load remains strong, the profit pressure of filament is increasing, but the inventory pressure is acceptable. After the inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased, the load has rebounded. In the short term, the risk of a significant decline in the polyester load is not large, and it is expected to remain around 91%. The decline in the polyester load is expected to occur around January [4] PF - The spot production profit is 142 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 32 yuan/ton). There are no significant changes in the fundamentals of direct - spun polyester staple fiber, and the inventory is at a low level. As raw material prices rise rapidly, the processing margin is under pressure. On the demand side, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn are average, the load has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly [5] PR - The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - chips is 423 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 9 yuan/ton). Polyester bottle - chip factories have raised prices following the increase in raw material prices, and the overall processing range has been compressed to below 500 yuan. In terms of fundamentals, the bottle - chip load remains unchanged, but as the inventory of bottle - chip factories has declined, the load has rebounded. In addition, a new 300,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip plant of Shandong Fuhai has started production. In the future, there is a possibility of an increase in bottle - chip supply. In the short term, the processing range of polyester bottle - chips is expected to be limited, and the market price will fluctuate with raw materials [5] Strategy Unilateral Strategy - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish. In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and there is a risk of price retracement when capital reduces positions. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load [6] Cross - Variety Strategy - None [7] Calendar Spread Strategy - Go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 9 - month contract for PTA and PX [7]