铁矿石：供需持续宽松，关注补库需求

Report Summary of Iron Ore 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Macro drivers are weakening, and the fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved. However, the decline in domestic iron ore demand has exceeded expectations, and the supply side is generally stable with a slight increase. It is expected that the port inventory will tend to accumulate overall. In the short term, the market trading focus has shifted to the reality, and the upside potential of prices is limited. However, restocking demand may support prices, and the market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has decreased slightly compared to the previous week. Among them, the shipment from Australia has declined slightly, and the shipment from Brazil has remained basically stable. According to seasonal patterns and the shipment targets of major mines this year, major mines will have a phased rush at the end of the year, and the weekly shipment volume will increase month - on - month. In terms of the arrival volume, it remains at a moderately high level in the short term and is higher than the same period last year, and the support from the supply side is weak [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has continued to decline rapidly, and the weakening of demand has exceeded expectations. Based on the current production reduction efforts and restart plans, the molten iron volume may be close to the lowest level. The main reasons are the combined effects of environmental protection restrictions and annual maintenance. The daily average molten iron this period is 226.55 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons compared to the previous period, and the absolute level of molten iron continues to be lower than the same period last year [3]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel mill end remains at a low level. The steel mill inventory this period has decreased compared to the previous period and is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. High prices have suppressed the willingness to restock. Currently, the restocking actions of steel mills are weak. Later, attention will be paid to when the restocking of US - dollar goods by steel mills will be fully launched. Port inventory has continued to accumulate, mainly because the arrival volume has remained at a relatively high level. It is expected that the port inventory will still tend to accumulate in December [3]. Price - The price operates within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore is in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Strategy - Operate within a range and use covered call options [4].