碳酸锂日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 5.31% to 120,160 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 500 yuan/ton to 99,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 500 yuan/ton to 96,850 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 1,000 yuan/ton to 88,480 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 240 tons to 16,651 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 47 tons to 22,045 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials decreased by 468 tons to 17,845 tons, and the inventory decreased by 433 tons to 18,091 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2,083 tons to 92,061 tons, and the inventory decreased by 1,387 tons to 102,271 tons. From December 1 - 14, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 764,000 units, a 24% year - on - year decrease and a 2% month - on - month increase; the retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 476,000 units, a 4% year - on - year decrease and a 1% month - on - month increase, with a penetration rate of 62.3%. In November 2025, the newly commissioned installed capacity of domestic new - type energy storage projects was 3.51GW/11.18GWh, a year - on - year decrease of 22%/7% and a month - on - month increase of 81%/180%. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 110,425 tons [3]. - The weakening short - term mine operation expectations further stimulated market sentiment, leading to a rapid rise in futures prices. However, the spot trading performance was weak. Currently, one should be vigilant about position disturbances and pay attention to the resumption of production rhythm, the decline in production scheduling, warehouse receipt inventory, and whether the strong demand next year can be verified [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain showed different changes. For example, the closing price of the main futures contract increased by 5,980 yuan/ton to 120,360 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 26 US dollars/ton to 1,404 US dollars/ton [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][15]. 3.2.3 Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads such as the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][20][21]. 3.2.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [24][25][27]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][33]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from April 30, 2025, to December 17, 2025 [35][37]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [40][41].