农产品日报-20251224

Research Views - Corn: On Tuesday, the near - month 2601 contract of corn reduced positions and declined, the main 2603 contract adjusted accordingly. Northeast corn trading was less active, with limited supply and poor transaction. There was no profit in shipping to the north port. The downstream demand in the sales area was weak. Technically, the March contract reached the weekly moving - average concentration area, showing signs of short - term stabilization. A light - position short - term long position could be considered. The view is "downward" [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined slightly. As of December 11, the net weekly sales of US soybeans were 2.3962 million tons, with 1.383 million tons sold to China. Domestically, the two - meal market stopped falling and rose, with a slight increase in positions. Oil mills maintained high - level crushing, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient. Downstream buyers were cautious. The price of soybean meal had limited upward and downward space, and the strategy was a double - selling strategy. The view is "sideways" [1]. - Edible Oils: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose for the second consecutive day, following the increase in soybean oil prices. International crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical concerns. Indonesia set the bio - diesel blending quota for 2026 at 15.646 million kiloliters. The export of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 20 decreased by 0.87% month - on - month. Domestically, the edible oil market continued to rebound, led by palm oil. The increase in import costs and limited purchases for December - January shipments supported the price. However, due to weak terminal demand and expected increase in soybean oil and rapeseed oil supply, the domestic market was weaker than the overseas market. The strategy was a double - selling strategy. The view is "sideways" [1]. - Eggs: On Tuesday, egg futures showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The near - month contract continued to fall, with the 2601 contract down 0.72% to 3027 yuan/500 kg, and the main 2602 contract down 0.42% to 2876 yuan/500 kg. The national egg price was 2.95 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. With the approaching New Year's Day, the festival demand boosted, while the supply was ample, so the spot price was basically flat. The optimistic expectation of declining production capacity supported the far - month contract, and the near - month contract was affected by the spot price and weakened. The view is "sideways" [1]. - Pigs: On Tuesday, near - and far - month pig contracts fluctuated in a narrow range. The main 2603 contract closed with a small positive line, consolidating at the bottom. In the spot market, pig prices in the north rose slightly, while those in the south fell slightly. In Northeast China, the medium - and large - sized pig prices remained stable, and the spread between standard and fat pigs slightly narrowed. In Jiangxi, the average pig price decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. Some enterprises tried to raise prices, but the transactions worsened. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the bottom performance of the March contract, and a light - position long - term long position could be considered for the far - month contract. The view is "upward" [1][2]. Market Information - EU's imports of soybeans, rapeseed, soybean meal, and palm oil in the 2025/26 season (starting in July) declined year - on - year as of December 21. Soybean imports reached 6 million tons, down 14%; rapeseed imports were 1.72 million tons, down 41%; soybean meal imports decreased 11% to 8.83 million tons; palm oil imports were 1.45 million tons, down 9% [3]. - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to return to normal in 2026, and the authorities should improve efficiency during the harvest of major crops such as palm oil [3]. - As of December 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 2,148,146 tons [3]. - Recently, the arrival of imported soybeans slowed down, but oil mills maintained high - level operation, and the soybean inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total domestic imported soybean inventory was 7.722 million tons, 333,000 tons less than last week [3]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads of various agricultural products, including corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, soybean 5 - 9 spread, soybean meal 5 - 9 spread, soybean oil 5 - 9 spread, palm oil 5 - 9 spread, egg 5 - 9 spread, and pig 5 - 9 spread [4][5][6][8][11]. Contract Basis - The report shows contract basis of various agricultural products, including corn basis, corn starch basis, soybean basis, soybean meal basis, soybean oil basis, palm oil basis, egg basis, and pig basis [12][13][17][22][23]. Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams of DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. Her futures qualification number is F0243534, and her trading consultation number is Z0001262 [25]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with over ten years of futures experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. Her futures qualification number is F3048706, and her trading consultation number is Z0013637 [25]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. Her futures qualification number is F3032578, and her trading consultation number is Z0013544 [25].