光大期货软商品日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report Cotton - On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.64% to close at 64.02 cents per pound, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.43% to close at 14,140 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 13,922 lots to 799,000 lots [2]. - In the international market, there are still macro - level disturbances. Trump stated that those who disagree with his views cannot be candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman. The overall driving force is limited. In the domestic market, the recent price of Zhengzhou cotton futures has been oscillating upward. The strong expectation is one of the main factors driving the recent market. There are strong rumors about the regulation of cotton planting area in Xinjiang next year, and many institutions have reprinted relevant articles [2]. - Fundamentally, in the short - term, there are both long and short factors for Zhengzhou cotton. The subsequent focuses are: whether the consumption performance can continue and whether downstream textile enterprises will have a new round of restocking demand before the Spring Festival; whether there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut at the macro - level in the first quarter of next year, and the details of the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy usually announced around April 10th. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton has certain support driven by sentiment, and in the medium - to - long - term, the upside space of cotton prices is greater than the downside space [2]. Sugar - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that Ukraine's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will reach 1.49 million tons, the same as the estimate released in May but a decrease of 310,000 tons compared to the 2024/25 crushing season. The expected sugar export volume in the 2025/26 crushing season will reach 701,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to the May estimate, and the ending inventory is expected to be 679,000 tons, consistent with the previous forecast [2]. - In terms of spot prices, the price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5,250 - 5,370 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,110 - 5,230 yuan per ton, with individual prices down 10 yuan per ton; the mainstream price range of processing sugar factories is 5,690 - 5,900 yuan per ton, with individual prices up 20 yuan per ton. The raw sugar market has a mild rebound, and some institutions predict a decline in Brazil's production in the next crushing season. In the domestic market, spot prices have stabilized, rigid demand procurement has recovered, market sentiment has warmed up mildly, and the futures market has rebounded slightly. In the short - term, it is testing the pressure at the upper integer level, waiting for new guidance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | Spot Location | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 55 | - 5 | 1073 | - 11 | Xinjiang | 15067 | 81 | | | | | | | | National | 15213 | 59 | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 104 | 7 | 205 | - 29 | Nanning | 5270 | 0 | | | | | | | | Liuzhou | 5360 | 0 | [3] Market Information - On December 23, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,088, an increase of 13 from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 4,001 [4]. - On December 23, the arrival prices of cotton in various domestic regions were: 15,067 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,243 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,246 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,378 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On December 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.4, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 28, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 31.8, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - On December 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,270 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,360 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - On December 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 4,479, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 1,181 [4]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar, such as cotton's main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China Cotton Price Index; sugar's main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [7][8][10][11][13][14][16]