供应压力持续，盘面偏弱震荡

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene market faces continuous supply pressure and weakens in a volatile manner. The overall propylene production remains high, and the supply pressure persists. Although the overall downstream operation has slightly increased, the cost pressure restricts the demand recovery, and the demand support is limited. Recently, the cost - end support has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the shutdown of PDH plants in the future [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5,632 yuan/ton (-15), the spot price in East China is 5,850 yuan/ton (-75), the spot price in North China is 5,810 yuan/ton (-80), the basis in East China is 218 yuan/ton (-60), the basis in North China is -114 yuan/ton (-118), the operating rate is 74% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 202 US dollars/ton (-9), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 50 US dollars/ton (-4), the import profit is -320 yuan/ton (+4), and the in - plant inventory is 46,560 tons (+600) [1] - Propylene Downstream: The operating rate of PP powder is 37% (-2.62%), and the production profit is -80 yuan/ton (+80); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 76% (+0%), and the production profit is -276 yuan/ton (-30); the operating rate of n - butanol is 78% (+9%), and the production profit is 336 yuan/ton (+100); the operating rate of octanol is 82% (+5%), and the production profit is 545 yuan/ton (+58); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 79% (+0%), and the production profit is 372 yuan/ton (+28); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 81% (+0%), and the production profit is -466 yuan/ton (+91); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 76% (-4%), and the production profit is -902 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply Side: The overall propylene production remains at a high level. The short - term loss and maintenance of PDH are not obvious, and some integrated enterprises stop PP production and release propylene. The commercial sales volume of propylene may continue to increase, and the supply pressure persists [2] - Demand Side: The overall downstream operation has slightly increased. Among them, the operating rate of butanol - octanol has increased the most due to the restart of maintenance plants, while the operating rate of phenol - acetone has decreased significantly. Due to serious profit inversion, the main PP powder plants have reduced production or stopped production, and the operating rate of the main downstream PP powder has continued to decline. The operating rate of propylene oxide remains stable. In the future, the cost pressure on the downstream will still restrict the demand recovery, and the demand support for propylene is limited [2] - Cost Side: The international oil price has rebounded recently, and the price of propane in the overseas market has also increased. Recently, the cost - end support has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the shutdown of PDH plants [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. As the supply and demand remain loose and the downstream support weakens, the market will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term. Wait for marginal plant maintenance [3] - Inter - period: No strategy provided - Inter - variety: No strategy provided