南华期货早评-20251224

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate may approach the 7.0 key level and could potentially break through it briefly. In 2026, it is expected to "break 7" and experience mild depreciation. For stocks, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term. For bonds, there may be speculation on next year's monetary policy, and mid - term long positions can be held while short - term long positions may be closed for profit as appropriate. For shipping, the container shipping European route futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For commodities, different varieties have different trends, such as platinum and palladium reaching new highs, gold and silver remaining strong in the short term, copper breaking through key levels, and various metals and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand and price characteristics [4][6][7][8] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The US GDP in the third quarter exceeded expectations, growing by 4.3%, which hit the interest - rate cut expectation to some extent. Domestically, policies continue to be proactive in finance and moderately loose in currency. The key task for next year is to expand domestic demand. The RMB exchange rate has shown an upward trend, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is approaching 7.0 [1][2][3] - Stock Index: The stock index is under pressure above and supported below, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The strong US GDP data has affected the interest - rate cut expectation, and Trump's call for interest - rate cuts has also caused fluctuations in the expectation, but the overall impact on A - shares is limited [5][6] - Treasury Bonds: The trading behavior of institutions may be related to speculating on next year's monetary policy. If the market rebounds, long - term varieties may have greater elasticity, but it is not recommended to chase high. Mid - term long positions can continue to be held, and short - term long positions can be closed for profit as appropriate [7] - Container Shipping European Route: The futures price is at a high - level and fluctuating. The main point of the game is the future peak freight rate and the time to reach the peak. There are both long and short factors in the market [8][9] Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: The prices have reached new highs. The price movements are related to the Fed's monetary policy, supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term speculation. In the long - term, platinum's bull market foundation remains, but in the short - term, there is a risk of adjustment [10][11][12] - Gold & Silver: They have reached new highs. The US GDP data and geopolitical factors have affected the prices. In the short - term, they remain strong, with gold potentially accelerating upward after breaking through the previous high, and silver should be held with caution due to high volatility [12][13][14] - Copper: The price has broken through the 95,000 level. The spot market demand is weak, and the futures market has increased in volume at night. Whether it can stand firm at 95,000 remains to be seen. Attention can be paid to the volume of a second breakthrough [16][17] - Zinc: The price opened higher at night driven by LME and then fell back. The macro sentiment is warm, the short - term domestic raw material supply is tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the future [18][19][20] - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The prices are oscillating strongly. The nickel ore is expected to be stable and slightly strong, and the new energy and nickel - iron markets have their own characteristics. The stainless - steel market is affected by export control and other factors [21] - Tin: The price is oscillating at a high level. The macro sentiment is warm, and the supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to increase in December. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing high above 340,000 [22] - Lead: The price is oscillating narrowly. The macro sentiment is warm, the domestic smelting supply is decreasing, and the demand lacks new drivers. It is expected to oscillate around 16,700 - 17,500 in the short term [22] Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices are under pressure above and supported below, and are oscillating at a low level. The cost of furnace materials provides support, but the demand is weak in the off - season [24][25] - Iron Ore: The price is continuing to decline, and the port inventory is accumulating. The supply pressure is significant, but there is also support from the demand for restocking by steel mills. It is expected to run within a range [25] - Coking Coal & Coke: The prices lack driving forces and are oscillating within a range. The coking coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke fundamentals are deteriorating marginally [26][27] - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: The prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, with limited upward space. The supply and demand are both weak, and the prices may follow the changes in steel prices [27][28] Energy - Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp futures price is oscillating at a high level as expected. The supply of pulp is restricted by the flood in Indonesia, and the inventory is decreasing. The offset paper market sentiment is improving, and both can be observed first or short - term long positions can be tried [29][30] - Crude Oil: The price has rebounded due to the tense situation between the US and Venezuela. Geopolitical factors have brought upward driving forces for short - term oil prices [30][31] - LPG: The price is affected by the alternation of reality and expectations. The supply is relatively tight in the near term, and the demand is relatively stable. The near - term is supported, and the expected is under pressure [32][33] - PTA - PX: The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA has reduced production significantly. The PX - TA structural contradiction has been alleviated. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026, and PTA processing fees have room for upward adjustment but are limited [33][34][35] - MEG - Bottle Chips: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has shown some support signals. The cost of oil and coal is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The overall situation is still under pressure [37][38] - Methanol: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. The 1 - 5 reverse spread can be held [39] - PP: The price is under pressure from the spot market, but the supply is expected to decrease in January due to low production profits. The demand is resilient, and short - term long positions can be considered at low prices [41][42] - PE: The spot price is continuously falling, and the demand is in the off - season. However, the supply pressure may be alleviated to some extent, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [43][44] - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The prices are oscillating. The supply of pure benzene is increasing slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The styrene is changing from a strong reality to a weak expectation [45][46] - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and the short - term cracking driving force is downward. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply has decreased, and the cracking driving force is upward [46][47] - Asphalt: The price is affected by the price adjustment in the South and geopolitical factors. The winter - storage policy has been introduced, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [48][49][51] - Rubber: The natural rubber price is oscillating under pressure, and the overall demand is weak. The synthetic rubber is oscillating, with increasing differences between long and short positions [52][53][54] - Soda Ash & Caustic Soda: The soda ash is in a situation of increasing over - supply expectation, and the price is breaking through the cost. The glass has high inventory, and the caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly [55][56][57] - Log: The spot market is weak, and the price is affected by inventory changes. The 03 contract is undervalued, and interval operations can be considered [57][58][59] - Propylene: The price is oscillating. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [59][60] Agricultural Products - Hogs: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified. In the long - term, the supply may be affected by policies, but in the short - term, the supply pressure in the near - month is still high [61][62] - Oilseeds: The external market has stopped falling. The supply of imported soybeans and rapeseeds has different situations, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have their own supply - demand characteristics. It is recommended to try long positions in the near - month [63][64] - Oils: The prices are oscillating weakly. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have different supply - demand situations. It is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel market information [64][65][66] - Cotton: The price is firm. The domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be tight in the long - term, but there is hedging pressure in the short - term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders before the festival [67][68] - Sugar: The price is continuing to rebound to repair the basis. The international and domestic sugar markets have different supply - demand situations, and the original sugar price is expected to return to the Brazilian cost line [68][69][70] - Eggs: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is in surplus, and the price is under pressure. In the short - term, some farmers are culling chickens. It is recommended to participate in long positions with a light position if speculating on a rebound [70][71] - Apples: The price is oscillating strongly. The consumption slowdown has a phased impact on the price, and opportunities to buy on dips can be waited for [71][72] - Jujubes: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - festival purchases, and the price will be under pressure in the long - term due to loose supply and demand [73]