航运衍生品数据日报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market is in a downward trend. The current price of the main contract at 1872 points has fully factored in the optimistic expectations for the future SCFIS index (especially the three - period from January 26th to February 9th). If the actual index meets the expectations, there is no more room for growth. If the index fails to meet the expectations due to poor implementation of price increases or is adjusted downwards, the market without fundamental support will face significant correction pressure. Also, with about 30 trading days until the delivery date, the early over - consumption of positive factors will weaken the bullish momentum and highlight the risk of time - value consumption [5]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1506, up 7.79% from the previous value of 1398; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1118, up 0.29% from 1115. SCFI - West America has a current value of 1780, up 14.84% from 1550; SCFIS - West America is at 962, up 4.11% from 924; SCFI - East America is at 2652, up 14.56% from 2315; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1538, up 9.86% from 1400. SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1589, up 5.23% from 1510; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2737, up 19.00% from 2300 [3]. - Contracts: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., the current values and their corresponding changes compared to the previous values are as follows: EC2506 is at 1331.7, up 0.89% from 1320.0; EC2608 is at 1480.0, down 0.42% from 1486.2; EC2610 is at 1052.0, down 0.85% from 1061.0; EC2512 is at 1606.0, down 1.53% from 1631.0; EC2602 is at 1806.6, down 3.48% from 1871.8; EC2604 is at 1158.0, down 0.75% from 1166.8 [3]. - Positions: Regarding the positions of contracts, the current values and their changes from the previous values are: EC2606 position is 2187, up 3 from 2184; EC2608 position is 1199, up 2 from 1197; EC2610 position is 5603, up 202 from 5401; EC2512 position is 1890, down 66 from 1956; EC2602 position is 35004, down 1506 from 36510; EC2604 position is 20867, up 396 from 20471 [3]. - Monthly Spreads: For monthly spreads such as 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04, the current values and their changes from the previous values are: 12 - 02 is at - 200.6, up 40.2 from - 240.8; 12 - 04 is at 448.0, down 16.2 from 464.2; 02 - 04 is at 648.6, down 56.4 from 705.0 [3]. 3.2 Market News - Maersk: Maersk's Singapore - flagged Maersk Sebarok passed through the Mandeb Strait controlled by the Houthi rebels on its way to the US East Coast this week. Maersk is the latest liner company to "test the waters" of Red Sea navigation. However, the company quickly emphasized that this does not mean a large - scale return to Red Sea routes [3]. - European Ports: Major European ports are preparing for the "inevitable" situation of ships sailing around the Cape of Good Hope and those using the Suez Canal arriving at ports simultaneously, which will have a chain reaction on the entire supply chain [3]. - Hapag - Lloyd: Hapag - Lloyd abandoned the plan to resume Suez Canal passage on the India - US East Coast route due to customer opposition. As of November this year, Hapag - Lloyd dominated the India - US East Coast (USEC) route, handling about 303,500 TEU of cargo throughout the year, accounting for about 23% of the route's market [3]. 3.3 EC Market - Market Overview: The EC market is in a downward trend [4]. - Spot Prices: Maersk's quotes for the first week of January are 2500, and 2600 - 2700 for the second week, the same as in early December. Previously, the quote was raised to 3500. QVE raised the quote to 3000, and CMA to 3600 [4].