市场热度持续吸引资金，碳酸锂基差修复需求强烈

1. Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating was provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The supply side is supported by rising raw material costs, while the demand side is weak, and the market is in a game between cost support and weak demand [3][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On December 23, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 120,360 yuan/ton, up 5,980 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a 5.23% increase. The basis weakened from - 13,580 yuan/ton to - 17,560 yuan/ton, a 29.31% decrease [1] - Position and Trading Volume: The position of the main contract slightly shrank from 671,889 lots to 671,573 lots, a 0.05% decrease. The trading volume dropped from 1,007,441 lots to 731,003 lots, a 27.44% decrease [1] 3.1.2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The raw material cost support increased. The market price of spodumene concentrate rose from 11,025 yuan/ton on December 22 to 11,145 yuan/ton on December 23, and that of lepidolite concentrate from 5,565 yuan/ton to 5,750 yuan/ton. The upstream lithium salt plants mainly focused on long - term contracts, with few spot transactions, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable at 83.52%, indicating a tight overall supply without significant expansion [2] - Demand Side: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose slightly. However, from December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year and wholesale sales decreased by 15% year - on - year. The demand side was overall weak, and downstream material plants were cautious about high prices, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and long - term contract increases. The advancement of solid - state battery technology may affect medium - to - long - term demand expectations [2] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased from 111,469 physical tons on December 12 to 110,425 physical tons on December 19, reflecting a continued inventory reduction trend [2] 3.2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lepidolite concentrate market price, power - type ternary material, and power - type lithium iron phosphate all increased. The basis weakened, and the main contract position slightly shrank, while the trading volume significantly decreased. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained stable. From December 12 to December 19, the lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable at 83.52%. Some cell prices increased slightly, while others remained stable [5] 3.3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1. Spot Market Quotation - On December 22, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price all increased. The lithium carbonate futures price showed an oscillating pattern, mainly driven by capital sentiment. Downstream cathode material plants were cautious about high prices, and actual market transactions were limited. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were still ongoing [6] 3.3.2. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the Passenger Car Association data on December 17, from December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year but increased by 1% month - on - month, and wholesale sales decreased by 15% year - on - year and 14% month - on - month [7] 3.3.3. Industry News - On December 16, it was reported that all - solid - state batteries are expected to be put into small - scale production and vehicle installation from 2026 - 2027, with different energy density targets in different periods. On December 11, Wanrun New Energy announced a technical upgrade of its lithium iron phosphate project to produce high - density lithium iron phosphate products [8][9] 3.4. Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The supply side is supported by rising lithium ore raw material costs, and the stable capacity utilization rate and scarce spot transactions limit the downward price space. Although new energy vehicle sales have declined year - on - year and downstream purchases are cautious, the slight inventory decrease and the slight increase in cathode material prices provide basic support. However, the significant shrinkage in trading volume and the slight decrease in positions indicate that capital sentiment is dominant, and the lack of strong short - term demand growth may suppress further price increases [3]