区域性交货压力尚未完全缓解，铜价缺少回调条件

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper futures prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, with a price range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side inventory accumulation and falling import costs exert downward pressure, while weak demand in the home appliance sector and the trend of aluminum replacing copper dampen buying interest. However, positive macro sentiment, such as policy support from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and geopolitical supply - chain risks, supports prices [3][47][48] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On December 23, 2025, the SHFE main contract price slightly dropped to 93,890 yuan/ton, a 0.16% decrease from the previous day. The basis generally weakened, with the discount on premium copper widening to - 180 yuan/ton, flat copper to - 230 yuan/ton, and wet - process copper to - 285 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) premium rose to 6.58 US dollars/ton on December 22 [1][41] - Position and Trading Volume: LME positions increased by 2,699 lots to 344,790 lots on December 22, 2025. LME inventory increased to 49,543 tons on December 23, SHFE inventory to 158,575 tons, and COMEX inventory also rose, indicating increased supply pressure [1][42] 2. Analysis of Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The supply side is relatively loose. On December 23, 2025, the 2026 CIF import copper concentrate benchmark price dropped to 85 US dollars/ton, potentially reducing smelting costs. A subsidiary's acquisition of the Raura zinc polymetallic mine in Peru on December 19, 2025, increases medium - to - long - term supply potential. Global projects like the Marathon copper mine are progressing, but with limited short - term impact. LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories all increased, with a combined weekly increase of about 1.5% [2][43] - Demand Side: The demand side is under significant pressure. In November 2025, the production and sales of household air conditioners declined significantly year - on - year (domestic sales - 39.8%, exports - 25.6%) due to the expiration of policy incentives and high - inventory clearance. The discussion of aluminum replacing copper due to soaring copper prices may suppress copper consumption in the air - conditioning field. In refined copper rod exports, processing with imported materials dominates, but general - trade exports decreased by 81.92% year - on - year, showing uneven external demand [2][44] - Inventory Side: Inventories are generally accumulating. LME inventory increased to 49,543 tons, SHFE inventory to 158,575 tons, and COMEX inventory also rose. The weakening of premiums and discounts and the increase in inventory indicate a continued pattern of loose supply and demand [2][46] 3. Price Trend Judgment - Copper futures prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The accumulation of supply - side inventory and the decrease in import costs provide downward pressure, while weak demand in the home appliance sector and the trend of aluminum replacing copper dampen buying interest. However, positive macro sentiment, such as policy support from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and geopolitical supply - chain risks, supports prices. The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton [3][47][48]