集运日报：现货运价涨幅不及预期，叠加多头止盈离场，盘面承压下行，符合日报预期，落袋后短期建议观望为主-20251224

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a container shipping daily report dated December 24, 2025, focusing on shipping research [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On December 22, SCFIS (European route) was 1589.20 points, up 5.2% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 962.10 points, up 4.1% [3] - On December 19, SCFI published price was 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33%; SCFI US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% [4] - On December 19, NCFI (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20%; NCFI (European route) was 1067.29 points, up 0.30%; NCFI (US West route) was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% [5] - On December 19, CCFI (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6%; CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2%; CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% [5] - On December 23, the main contract 2602 closed at 1806.6, down 0.86%, with a trading volume of 41,700 lots and an open interest of 35,000 lots, a decrease of 1506 lots from the previous day [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50; the services PMI preliminary value was 53.1, better than expected [6] - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 [6] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; in October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [6] - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, better than expected; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [6] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategies - Spot freight rate increases were lower than expected, and long - positions taking profits led to downward pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [7] - Short - term strategy: After the main contract reached a new high, it was recommended to take full profits and wait and see, not to add positions [8] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, contracts follow seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [8] - Long - term strategy: It was recommended to take profits when contracts reached high levels and wait for a pull - back to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [8] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [8] Group 5: Geopolitical Information - On December 22, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman emphasized that Iran's missile program is for self - sovereignty, and its defense capabilities will not be a negotiation topic. He also pointed out that Israel's aggression is the root cause of the Middle East's problems [9]