沪锡高位或有调整风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term tin ore supply shortage marginally improves, but high - priced tin demand is restricted, and the upward pressure on tin prices increases, with a risk of adjustment at high levels. In the medium term, global tin supply support weakens, domestic tin ore raw materials tend to be loose, but tin prices will fluctuate at high levels due to the recovery cycle of consumption in the semiconductor and new energy fields. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery of Burmese tin mines and domestic supply - demand conditions [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - Tin Concentrate - In November, domestic tin ore imports were 15,099 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.43% and a month - on - month increase of 29.8%. Imports from Myanmar were 7,190 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133%. Although the current import volume is still below the average in recent years, the recovery is expected to accelerate. However, the short - term domestic tin ore supply shortage continues, and domestic tin ore processing fees remain low. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi is 8,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous month [3] 3.2 Fundamental Situation - Supply - In November 2025, China's refined tin output was 15,490 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. The cumulative output from January to November was 158,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The pressure on domestic smelting remains, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters is generally less than 30 days, and the operating rate of smelting enterprises is difficult to increase. It is expected that the refined tin output in December will increase slightly month - on - month. In November, China imported 1,195 tons of tin ingots, a month - on - month increase of 127.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 66%; the export of refined tin was 1,948 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3% and a year - on - year increase of 32.3%. Currently, the Shanghai - London ratio fluctuates, and tin imports remain at a loss. In November, Indonesia's refined tin exports were 7,458.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 182.20%. Due to the impact of RKAB approval, supply is expected to be restricted in the first quarter of next year [3] 3.3 Fundamental Situation - Consumption - Demand in traditional consumption fields is sluggish, but the semiconductor industry maintains high growth in the medium term, and consumption in fields such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles continues to rise. In the short term, tin prices fluctuate at high levels, market trading is continuously restricted, downstream caution intensifies, and there is a high level of wait - and - see sentiment. In the short term, domestic inventories continue to grow, and the actual shipment pressure remains high. It is expected that short - term consumption will continue to lag [4] 3.4 Fundamental Situation - Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of November 19, the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory increased by 704 tons to 8,095 tons. The social inventory was 10,181 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month, remaining at a medium level. The average spot price of tin in the Yangtze River was 337,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6,160 yuan, or 1.86%. The premium of the Yangtze River spot over the tin main contract changed to a discount, with a basis of - 1,040 yuan last Friday [4] 3.5 Fundamental Situation - LME Spot and Inventory - As of November 19, the LME tin weekly inventory continued to increase by 975 tons to 4,645 tons, at a relatively high level in the past five years. The LME tin spot premium weakened, with a discount of $11 last weekend [4]