股指期货早报2025.12.24：外围圣诞节行情持续，A股指数震荡收涨-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US economy showed resilience in Q3 with high GDP growth, but high - frequency data indicated a slowdown. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January rose to 86.7%, with the expected number of rate cuts in the next year remaining the same. Overnight assets followed the Christmas market trend [1]. - Domestically, on Tuesday, the A - share market indices closed higher with a volatile trend. The launch issue of the Changzheng 12A rocket dragged down the military and related sectors, while the rise in silver drove the non - ferrous metals sector up. The overall market was in a state of stock game, and the report remained optimistic about the year - end market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Information - US economic expansion in Q3 reached 4.3%, the fastest in two years, but the consumer confidence index declined for five consecutive months. From the ADP weekly employment report, private employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending December 6, 2025 [4]. - Trump stated that those who disagreed with his views would never become Fed chair. The next Fed candidate, Hassett, predicted that monthly new jobs might return to over 100,000, and the Fed was far behind in cutting rates. US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that the Fed discuss adjusting the inflation target to a range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% [5]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized accelerating the renewal and digital transformation of traditional infrastructure and moderately advancing the construction of new infrastructure. Two departments set a goal of reaching about 15 million kilowatts of concentrated solar power generation capacity by 2030. The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed stabilizing the real estate market and promoting the spot - sale system in 2026 [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US drone list, warning that China would take necessary measures if the US persisted. The second - stage of the Changzheng 12A rocket entered the planned orbit, but the first - stage failed to be recovered. SMIC raised the price of some production capacities by about 10% [6]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - Market Performance: For the Shanghai 50 Index, the closing price was 3,028 with a 0.24% increase. Among its futures contracts, IH2601, IH2602, IH2603, and IH2606 all had varying degrees of price increases. Similar trends were observed for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices and their corresponding futures contracts [8]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The total trading volume of all futures varieties was 370,928 lots, a decrease of 8,698 lots. The total open interest was 7,250 lots, an increase of 14,742 lots. Different contracts had different changes in trading volume, open interest, and positions of the top 20 member institutions [9]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - Market Index Performance: The WanDe All - A Index was at 6,315, down 0.06%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,920, up 0.07%. The Shenzhen Component Index was at 13,369, up 0.27%. The ChiNext Index reached 3,205, up 0.41%. Other major indices also showed different degrees of rise or fall [35]. - Sector Performance: Power equipment, building materials, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and banks led the gainers, while social services, beauty care, commerce and retail, military, and computers led the decliners [2]. - Market Style Impact: Different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) had different impacts on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [36][37][38]. - Valuation and Other Indicators: The report presented the valuation and historical percentile of important indices and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market average daily trading volume, turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative return, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and net margin trading purchases and their proportion in A - share trading volume [39][42][45]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report showed data on central bank open - market operations (including money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and Shibor interest rates [51].